Integrating carbon footprint analysis with energy poverty assessment for federated climate policy in the Russian Arctic

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climatic changes that significantly affect regional energy systems and human vulnerability. Current climate policy frameworks often overlook the link between carbon emissions and energy poverty, especially in federated systems with diverse regional conditions. This study examines the relationship between carbon emissions, energy poverty, and climate policy across eight Russian regions, including Arctic and sub-Arctic areas. We introduced and validated the Arctic Energy Poverty Risk Index (AEPRI), a metric that combines heating demand, fuel toxicity, grid reliability, and health impacts. Validation confirmed construct validity (r = 0.78 with independent measurements of energy poverty), internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.71), and stability against varying weights (rank correlations ≥ 0.91). Findings reveal significant regional differences in emission intensity (F(7392) = 14.27, p < 0.001) and energy vulnerability, with Moscow showing the highest per capita emissions (1109 kg CO₂/month, 95% CI [1042, 1176]), while Arctic cities like Norilsk face serious AEPRI scores (0.81). Policy simulations suggest that targeted interventions such as wind-diesel hybrid microgrids, industrial waste-heat recycling, and permafrost-adaptive geothermal systems could cut emissions by 10–30%, with benefit-cost ratios ranging from 1.86 to 3.11. Discounted net present value analysis shows positive returns (all BCR > 1.5) under conservative assumptions. The study calls for decentralized, federated climate policy that connects emissions trading systems with AEPRI-based subsidies to tackle both equity and efficiency. The AEPRI framework and implementation plan serve as a model for federated Arctic nations aiming to synchronize decarbonization with just energy transitions.