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<p>Climate change is one of the major environmental challenges for the Ethiopian agricultural sector where rain-fed agriculture is common. This study was intended to analyze climate change trend and its effect on the selected crops' yield in the Gozamin district, Northwest Ethiopia. The study employed a mixed research method and analytical research design. The necessary climate data were collected from NASA POWER and Ethiopian Meteorological Service, whereas, crop data gathered from the district agricultural office. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics such as mean, standard deviation, Man-Kendall test, and multiple regressions. The Man-Kendal test result showed that, the annual average temperature has a significant decreasing trend of −&#xa0;0.03&#xa0;°C per year (R = −&#xa0;0.390, <i>P</i> = 0.048). The findings also showed that from seasons, only autumn has revealed an increasing trend of temperature(R = 0.105). Besides, rainfall has shown an increasing trend both seasonally and annually (annual R = 0.524, Summer R = 0.371, and Spring R = 0.181). In addition, the study indicated that teff, wheat, and the total yield showed an increasing trend at R = 1.00, 0.676, and 0.429 and <i>P</i> =  &lt; 0.0001, 0.001, and 0.029, respectively. On the other hand, maize and barley yield has shown a decreasing trend by R = −&#xa0;0.536, <i>P</i> = 0.006 and R = −&#xa0;0.771, <i>P</i> =  &lt; 0.0001 respectively. Furthermore, as multiple regression analysis demonstrates, annual rainfall has explained the production of teff, maize, barley, wheat, and total yield at 43.2%, 20.3%, 34.5%, 23.5%, and 14.6% determination levels, respectively. Whereas, mean annual temperature determined the production of teff, maize, barley, wheat, and total yield at 21.7%, 2.51%, 12.7%, 19.1% and 19.1% levels, respectively. Therefore, to build a sustainable future and augment crop yields; inclusive community-based discussions, the design of nature-based climate change solutions, the use of improved seed types, and the boosting research and extension services are essential.</p>

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Climate change and its effects on crop production in Gozamin District, Northwest Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Lakachew Ayenew Gebeyehu,
  • Yismaw Assefa Lakew,
  • Demsew Mengistie Tegegne,
  • Addisu Dagnaw Mekonnen,
  • Ayalneh Yedem Fentie,
  • Solomon Addisu Legesse

摘要

Climate change is one of the major environmental challenges for the Ethiopian agricultural sector where rain-fed agriculture is common. This study was intended to analyze climate change trend and its effect on the selected crops' yield in the Gozamin district, Northwest Ethiopia. The study employed a mixed research method and analytical research design. The necessary climate data were collected from NASA POWER and Ethiopian Meteorological Service, whereas, crop data gathered from the district agricultural office. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics such as mean, standard deviation, Man-Kendall test, and multiple regressions. The Man-Kendal test result showed that, the annual average temperature has a significant decreasing trend of − 0.03 °C per year (R = − 0.390, P = 0.048). The findings also showed that from seasons, only autumn has revealed an increasing trend of temperature(R = 0.105). Besides, rainfall has shown an increasing trend both seasonally and annually (annual R = 0.524, Summer R = 0.371, and Spring R = 0.181). In addition, the study indicated that teff, wheat, and the total yield showed an increasing trend at R = 1.00, 0.676, and 0.429 and P =  < 0.0001, 0.001, and 0.029, respectively. On the other hand, maize and barley yield has shown a decreasing trend by R = − 0.536, P = 0.006 and R = − 0.771, P =  < 0.0001 respectively. Furthermore, as multiple regression analysis demonstrates, annual rainfall has explained the production of teff, maize, barley, wheat, and total yield at 43.2%, 20.3%, 34.5%, 23.5%, and 14.6% determination levels, respectively. Whereas, mean annual temperature determined the production of teff, maize, barley, wheat, and total yield at 21.7%, 2.51%, 12.7%, 19.1% and 19.1% levels, respectively. Therefore, to build a sustainable future and augment crop yields; inclusive community-based discussions, the design of nature-based climate change solutions, the use of improved seed types, and the boosting research and extension services are essential.