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<p>This study analyses the impact of inclusive financing on emissions of three major greenhouse gases (GHGs: CO<sub>2</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O, and CH<sub>4</sub>) across 13 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries from 2002 to 2022. Financial inclusion is measured through accessibility indicators (ATM and commercial bank branch accessibility) and a usage indicator (personal remittances received). A two-stage analytical approach is employed. First, Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) regression is used to obtain mean effects. Second, quantile regression is conducted to capture how the influence of inclusive financing varies across different emission levels. The mean regression results show that only ATM accessibility contributes to reducing N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, while access to commercial bank branches and remittances exhibits no effect on any of the GHGs. The quantile regression findings reveal more differentiated patterns: ATM access reduces N<sub>2</sub>O emissions but increases CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the lowest quantile and has no effects on CH<sub>4</sub>. Commercial bank access lowers all GHGs except CH<sub>4</sub> in the lowest quantile. Furthermore, it decreases N<sub>2</sub>O at the median quantile but increases CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the highest quantile. Remittances do not affect any GHGs across all quantiles. Overall, the results suggest that the environmental implications of financial inclusion differ by emission type and intensity. Therefore, the recommendations with respect to developing financial infrastructure differ depending on the respective status of the country´s emission levels, the characteristics of the populations to be served and the supporting possible influence of digitalisation.</p>

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Two-stage least squares and quantile regression assessment of financial inclusion on greenhouse gas levels in the SADC

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月24日

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  • Simon Osiregbemhe Ilogho,
  • Heinz Eckart Klingelhöfer

摘要

This study analyses the impact of inclusive financing on emissions of three major greenhouse gases (GHGs: CO2, N2O, and CH4) across 13 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries from 2002 to 2022. Financial inclusion is measured through accessibility indicators (ATM and commercial bank branch accessibility) and a usage indicator (personal remittances received). A two-stage analytical approach is employed. First, Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) regression is used to obtain mean effects. Second, quantile regression is conducted to capture how the influence of inclusive financing varies across different emission levels. The mean regression results show that only ATM accessibility contributes to reducing N2O emissions, while access to commercial bank branches and remittances exhibits no effect on any of the GHGs. The quantile regression findings reveal more differentiated patterns: ATM access reduces N2O emissions but increases CO2 emissions in the lowest quantile and has no effects on CH4. Commercial bank access lowers all GHGs except CH4 in the lowest quantile. Furthermore, it decreases N2O at the median quantile but increases CO2 emissions in the highest quantile. Remittances do not affect any GHGs across all quantiles. Overall, the results suggest that the environmental implications of financial inclusion differ by emission type and intensity. Therefore, the recommendations with respect to developing financial infrastructure differ depending on the respective status of the country´s emission levels, the characteristics of the populations to be served and the supporting possible influence of digitalisation.