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<p>The desert locust (<i>Schistocerca gregaria</i>) remains a major threat to agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. Although its ecological impacts are well documented, household-level socio-economic consequences in Ethiopia are less understood. This study assessed the determinants of the socio–economic impacts of the 2020/21 desert locust infestation in the Wabe Shebelle River Basin, using data from 484 households collected through multi-stage sampling across four severely affected districts. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Ordinal Forest (OF) analyses in R (version 4.4.1) were employed to assess determinants of economic, food security, and social well-being outcomes. The PLS-SEM results showed strong construct validity. Locust exposure significantly reduced food security, while household vulnerability adversely affected economic and social well-being outcomes. Social networks enhanced food security, whereas financial capital unexpectedly had negative effects on economic and food security outcomes. The OF models achieved 63.5–81.1% accuracy, highlighting financial capital, physical assets, and locust exposure as the strongest predictors. Households with limited resources and high vulnerability suffered the greatest socio-economic losses. The results showed that the socio-economic consequences of desert locust infestations were shaped not only by exposure, but also by the interplay of household vulnerability and available assets. The findings demonstrated that effective desert locust risk management had to move beyond emergency control toward an integrated, resilience-oriented strategy that combined early warning and rapid response with asset protection, socially targeted support, and livelihood strengthening to address the vulnerability-mediated socio–economic impacts of infestations.</p>

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Determinants of household level socio–economic impacts of desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) in Wabe Shebelle River Basin of Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月10日

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  • Demissie Tsega Mallie,
  • Solomon Tekalegn Demissie,
  • Solomon Asfaw Beza,
  • Sitotaw Haile Erena,
  • Sintayehu Workineh Dejene

摘要

The desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) remains a major threat to agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. Although its ecological impacts are well documented, household-level socio-economic consequences in Ethiopia are less understood. This study assessed the determinants of the socio–economic impacts of the 2020/21 desert locust infestation in the Wabe Shebelle River Basin, using data from 484 households collected through multi-stage sampling across four severely affected districts. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Ordinal Forest (OF) analyses in R (version 4.4.1) were employed to assess determinants of economic, food security, and social well-being outcomes. The PLS-SEM results showed strong construct validity. Locust exposure significantly reduced food security, while household vulnerability adversely affected economic and social well-being outcomes. Social networks enhanced food security, whereas financial capital unexpectedly had negative effects on economic and food security outcomes. The OF models achieved 63.5–81.1% accuracy, highlighting financial capital, physical assets, and locust exposure as the strongest predictors. Households with limited resources and high vulnerability suffered the greatest socio-economic losses. The results showed that the socio-economic consequences of desert locust infestations were shaped not only by exposure, but also by the interplay of household vulnerability and available assets. The findings demonstrated that effective desert locust risk management had to move beyond emergency control toward an integrated, resilience-oriented strategy that combined early warning and rapid response with asset protection, socially targeted support, and livelihood strengthening to address the vulnerability-mediated socio–economic impacts of infestations.