Scholarlink

<p>As a vital economic engine of China, the Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei (BTH) region faces severe challenges in balancing economic, social, and ecological development. Existing studies often rely on static, single-dimensional assessments, lacking a framework for dynamic prediction and mechanistic analysis of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. To address this gap, this study constructs a multidimensional evaluation framework integrating the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, Sustainable Development Index (SDI), Vector Autoregression (VAR) forecasting, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR). We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of sustainable development in the BTH region from 2000 to 2022 and project trends to 2030. Results show an overall upward trend in sustainable development levels, yet significant spatial imbalances persist, characterized by a “northern ecological advantage vs. southern economic lag” pattern. The Tertiary Industry Value (TIV) and Ecosystem Regulating Service Value (ERV) are core positive drivers, whereas Population Density (PD) and Primary Industry Value (PIV) become constraints over time. By 2030, 15.38% of cities are projected to reach high-level sustainability. This study provides a dynamic collaborative assessment method, overcomes the limitations of traditional static analysis, and offers actionable, spatially differentiated policy insights for ecological compensation, industrial optimization, and cross-regional coordination, with implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in similar regions.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Multidimensional SDI-based assessment of sustainable development and its driving mechanisms in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月27日

查看全文
  • Zhang Xuedong,
  • Liu Yiheng,
  • Qiang Qinwei,
  • Guo Xin,
  • Hu Yi,
  • Ma Tengyue

摘要

As a vital economic engine of China, the Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei (BTH) region faces severe challenges in balancing economic, social, and ecological development. Existing studies often rely on static, single-dimensional assessments, lacking a framework for dynamic prediction and mechanistic analysis of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. To address this gap, this study constructs a multidimensional evaluation framework integrating the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, Sustainable Development Index (SDI), Vector Autoregression (VAR) forecasting, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR). We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of sustainable development in the BTH region from 2000 to 2022 and project trends to 2030. Results show an overall upward trend in sustainable development levels, yet significant spatial imbalances persist, characterized by a “northern ecological advantage vs. southern economic lag” pattern. The Tertiary Industry Value (TIV) and Ecosystem Regulating Service Value (ERV) are core positive drivers, whereas Population Density (PD) and Primary Industry Value (PIV) become constraints over time. By 2030, 15.38% of cities are projected to reach high-level sustainability. This study provides a dynamic collaborative assessment method, overcomes the limitations of traditional static analysis, and offers actionable, spatially differentiated policy insights for ecological compensation, industrial optimization, and cross-regional coordination, with implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in similar regions.