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<p>Climate variability increasingly threatens agriculture and smallholder farmers’ livelihoods in Ethiopia, but little is known about its localized impacts on crop production across diverse agroecological zones. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns of climate variability and its effects on major yields in the Ayehu Watershed, Northwest Ethiopia. We analyzed temporal variability using the Coefficient of Variation, Precipitation Concentration Index, Rainfall Anomaly Index, and Mann-Kendall trend analysis. Spatial patterns were mapped separately using inverse distance weighting. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model quantified short- and long-term impacts of rainfall and temperature on crop yields across highland, midland, and lowland agroecological zones. Rainfall in the watershed follows a bimodal pattern, with annual totals decreasing from highland (1573.6&#xa0;mm) to lowland (1244.1&#xa0;mm). Trend analysis reveals that rainfall is declining during the <i>Belg</i> (short rainy season: March–May) and <i>Bega</i> (dry season: December–February), while it is increasing during the <i>Kiremit</i> (main rainy season: June–September) in the highland and midland zones. Both minimum and maximum temperatures show significant increases, especially during the <i>Kiremit</i> and <i>Belg</i> seasons. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicates that minimum temperature is stationary in the highland and midland zones but non-stationary in the lowland, whereas maximum temperature and rainfall are generally non-stationary in the midland and lowland areas, suggesting evolving heat and rainfall stress. ARDL analysis demonstrates that minimum temperature consistently enhances crop yields over both short- and long-term periods, while maximum temperature positively affects yields only in the short-term. In contrast, rainfall has a significant negative impact on crop yields across all timescales and zones, primarily because excessive rainfall during sensitive growth stages can reduce productivity. These findings highlight the critical need for climate-smart, agroecology-specific strategies that improve resilience and safeguard food security under increasing climate variability.</p>

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Spatio-temporal dynamics of climate variability and its impact on major crop yields across different agro-ecological zones of the Ayehu watershed, Northwest Ethiopia

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月30日

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  • Abebe Biresaw Bitew,
  • Amare Sewnet Minale

摘要

Climate variability increasingly threatens agriculture and smallholder farmers’ livelihoods in Ethiopia, but little is known about its localized impacts on crop production across diverse agroecological zones. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns of climate variability and its effects on major yields in the Ayehu Watershed, Northwest Ethiopia. We analyzed temporal variability using the Coefficient of Variation, Precipitation Concentration Index, Rainfall Anomaly Index, and Mann-Kendall trend analysis. Spatial patterns were mapped separately using inverse distance weighting. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model quantified short- and long-term impacts of rainfall and temperature on crop yields across highland, midland, and lowland agroecological zones. Rainfall in the watershed follows a bimodal pattern, with annual totals decreasing from highland (1573.6 mm) to lowland (1244.1 mm). Trend analysis reveals that rainfall is declining during the Belg (short rainy season: March–May) and Bega (dry season: December–February), while it is increasing during the Kiremit (main rainy season: June–September) in the highland and midland zones. Both minimum and maximum temperatures show significant increases, especially during the Kiremit and Belg seasons. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicates that minimum temperature is stationary in the highland and midland zones but non-stationary in the lowland, whereas maximum temperature and rainfall are generally non-stationary in the midland and lowland areas, suggesting evolving heat and rainfall stress. ARDL analysis demonstrates that minimum temperature consistently enhances crop yields over both short- and long-term periods, while maximum temperature positively affects yields only in the short-term. In contrast, rainfall has a significant negative impact on crop yields across all timescales and zones, primarily because excessive rainfall during sensitive growth stages can reduce productivity. These findings highlight the critical need for climate-smart, agroecology-specific strategies that improve resilience and safeguard food security under increasing climate variability.