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<p>Food insecurity remains a critical challenge in fragile states, where weak labor markets, rapid population growth, and reliance on external support heighten household vulnerability. This study examines Somalia over 1991–2022 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds framework, with Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) as robustness checks. Guided by Keynesian income–consumption and Sen’s entitlement perspectives, the model relates food security (Food Production Index) to unemployment, GDP per capita, trade openness, official development assistance, and population growth. Bounds testing confirms a long-run relationship, and the error-correction term indicates rapid convergence. Results show unemployment exerts a large, negative effect in both the long run and short run, underscoring how job loss erodes purchasing power and market access to food. By contrast, GDP per capita and trade openness are positive and significant in both horizons, reflecting income-driven capacity and import-smoothing effects. Official development assistance is statistically insignificant on average once fundamentals are controlled. Population growth is positively associated with food production in the short and long run consistent with scale and labor-supply channels in Somalia’s trader-mediated system though its benefits are conditional on productivity and infrastructure. FMOLS/CCR corroborate the positive roles of income, openness, and demographic scale. The study’s novelty lies in centering the unemployment (income–entitlement) channel within a Somalia-specific, integrated time-series design that separates short-run adjustments from long-run elasticities. Policy priorities include protecting labor incomes (cash-for-work, wage support), keeping trade corridors fluid and diversified, re-tooling assistance toward scalable cash and market-linked resilience, and pairing demographic pressures with productivity-enhancing investments.</p>

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Investigating the Nexus between unemployment and food insecurity in Somalia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月11日

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  • Abas Omar Hassan,
  • Abdikani Salah Abdulle

摘要

Food insecurity remains a critical challenge in fragile states, where weak labor markets, rapid population growth, and reliance on external support heighten household vulnerability. This study examines Somalia over 1991–2022 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds framework, with Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) as robustness checks. Guided by Keynesian income–consumption and Sen’s entitlement perspectives, the model relates food security (Food Production Index) to unemployment, GDP per capita, trade openness, official development assistance, and population growth. Bounds testing confirms a long-run relationship, and the error-correction term indicates rapid convergence. Results show unemployment exerts a large, negative effect in both the long run and short run, underscoring how job loss erodes purchasing power and market access to food. By contrast, GDP per capita and trade openness are positive and significant in both horizons, reflecting income-driven capacity and import-smoothing effects. Official development assistance is statistically insignificant on average once fundamentals are controlled. Population growth is positively associated with food production in the short and long run consistent with scale and labor-supply channels in Somalia’s trader-mediated system though its benefits are conditional on productivity and infrastructure. FMOLS/CCR corroborate the positive roles of income, openness, and demographic scale. The study’s novelty lies in centering the unemployment (income–entitlement) channel within a Somalia-specific, integrated time-series design that separates short-run adjustments from long-run elasticities. Policy priorities include protecting labor incomes (cash-for-work, wage support), keeping trade corridors fluid and diversified, re-tooling assistance toward scalable cash and market-linked resilience, and pairing demographic pressures with productivity-enhancing investments.