COVID-19 pandemic, household welfare and diversification strategies of smallholder farmers in Uganda

Agricultural activities in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are subject to various risk factors that the COVID-19 compounds. Earlier studies on the effect of COVID-19 on smallholders neglect the issue of comparison with non-farm households. The study uses micro-level household datasets to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household welfare, with a focus on farm households relative to their non-farm counterparts. We employed a binary probit model and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach and demonstrated that farm households witnessed important income reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda. The study contributes to the design of evidence-based approaches to reducing farmers’ vulnerabilities to agricultural risks and pandemic-related shocks.