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<p>Building on verified patterns from the Chinese phosphate industry, this study presents a predictive and adaptable model to support the sustainable valorization of phosphogypsum (PG) in North Africa, with a focus on Morocco and Tunisia. While reducing ecological concerns related to marine discharge, long-term stockpiling, and soil and water contamination, the strategy aims to promote the responsible reuse of PG across industrial and environmental applications. The model offers a quantitative foundation for converting PG from a plentiful waste by-product into a valuable secondary resource within a circular economy paradigm by combining structural, technical, and economic characteristics into a single framework. A key innovation of this study is the integration of a development-sensitivity term that captures cross-country differences in economic maturity by jointly considering time, income level, and utilization rate, thereby representing the temporal and physical dynamics of phosphogypsum production and reuse. Complex interactions are incorporated to reflect time-dependent industrial behavior. Model parameters are calibrated using nonlinear least-squares optimization (Levenberg–Marquardt), yielding excellent agreement with Chinese data (R² = 0.994; mean error ≈ 0.8%). Furthermore, a resource-adjustment factor based on relative phosphate reserve endowments enables realistic extrapolation across countries with differing geological potential, industrial maturity, and long-term valorization capacity. According to Morocco’s scenario analysis, PG consumption might rise to almost 35% by 2035 under a revised scenario that takes phosphate restrictions into account, indicating unrealized valorization potential. PG reuse in Tunisia is driven by the cement sector (6% in 2025 → 14% in 2035), plasterboard production (3% → 7%), and agricultural applications (≈ 2%). As a result, the suggested model provides a reliable and applicable tool for predicting PG reuse trajectories in North Africa. It promotes sustainable industrial development, improves resource efficiency, and upholds environmental protection goals crucial to the region’s ecological resilience by directing strategic planning for industries like building, road engineering, and soil stabilization.</p>

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Predicting Sustainable Phosphogypsum Valorization in Tunisia and North Africa Based on Chinese Reuse Trends

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月29日

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  • Hatem Ksibi,
  • Elimame Elaloui

摘要

Building on verified patterns from the Chinese phosphate industry, this study presents a predictive and adaptable model to support the sustainable valorization of phosphogypsum (PG) in North Africa, with a focus on Morocco and Tunisia. While reducing ecological concerns related to marine discharge, long-term stockpiling, and soil and water contamination, the strategy aims to promote the responsible reuse of PG across industrial and environmental applications. The model offers a quantitative foundation for converting PG from a plentiful waste by-product into a valuable secondary resource within a circular economy paradigm by combining structural, technical, and economic characteristics into a single framework. A key innovation of this study is the integration of a development-sensitivity term that captures cross-country differences in economic maturity by jointly considering time, income level, and utilization rate, thereby representing the temporal and physical dynamics of phosphogypsum production and reuse. Complex interactions are incorporated to reflect time-dependent industrial behavior. Model parameters are calibrated using nonlinear least-squares optimization (Levenberg–Marquardt), yielding excellent agreement with Chinese data (R² = 0.994; mean error ≈ 0.8%). Furthermore, a resource-adjustment factor based on relative phosphate reserve endowments enables realistic extrapolation across countries with differing geological potential, industrial maturity, and long-term valorization capacity. According to Morocco’s scenario analysis, PG consumption might rise to almost 35% by 2035 under a revised scenario that takes phosphate restrictions into account, indicating unrealized valorization potential. PG reuse in Tunisia is driven by the cement sector (6% in 2025 → 14% in 2035), plasterboard production (3% → 7%), and agricultural applications (≈ 2%). As a result, the suggested model provides a reliable and applicable tool for predicting PG reuse trajectories in North Africa. It promotes sustainable industrial development, improves resource efficiency, and upholds environmental protection goals crucial to the region’s ecological resilience by directing strategic planning for industries like building, road engineering, and soil stabilization.