India is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy markets, targeting 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and Net-Zero emissions by 2070. This rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems is generating a significant emerging challenge in the form of end-of-life (EoL) waste. This study develops an integrated analytical framework combining scenario-based capacity projections, Material Flow Analysis (MFA), and Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) to assess waste generation, resource recovery potential, and circular economy outcomes in India over the period 2014–2035. The results indicate that installed solar capacity is expected to reach 500–1000 GW by 2035, depending on policy and market conditions. Correspondingly, annual material inflow is projected to increase to approximately 30–70 million tonnes, reflecting the material-intensive nature of solar energy systems. India is expected to enter a significant EoL waste phase after 2035, marking a critical transition point for waste management systems. The analysis demonstrates that circular economy pathways can reduce landfill dependency by over 70%, while enabling the recovery of valuable materials such as aluminium, silicon, and silver. From an environmental perspective, recycling activities generate moderate process emissions of approximately 30,000–35,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually, but result in substantially higher avoided emissions of 2.5–3.1 million tonnes of CO₂, leading to a strong net environmental benefit. Economically, the viability of recycling systems is driven primarily by high-value material recovery, particularly silver, with long-term net benefits observed under medium and high deployment scenarios. However, outcomes remain sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and policy support. The study further identifies a gap between regulatory design and implementation in India’s E-Waste and Battery Waste Management Rules, particularly in collection efficiency, infrastructure development, and data transparency. The integration of informal sector actors and the adoption of digital monitoring systems are identified as critical enablers for improving Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) compliance. Overall, the study concludes that transitioning to a circular economy for solar PV and battery waste in India is environmentally necessary, economically viable, and strategically important for achieving resource security and climate goals.

Circular Economy for End-of-Life Solar Panels and Batteries in India

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发表日期：

2026年5月22日

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Anshadha A. Upasani

摘要

India is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy markets, targeting 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and Net-Zero emissions by 2070. This rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems is generating a significant emerging challenge in the form of end-of-life (EoL) waste. This study develops an integrated analytical framework combining scenario-based capacity projections, Material Flow Analysis (MFA), and Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) to assess waste generation, resource recovery potential, and circular economy outcomes in India over the period 2014–2035. The results indicate that installed solar capacity is expected to reach 500–1000 GW by 2035, depending on policy and market conditions. Correspondingly, annual material inflow is projected to increase to approximately 30–70 million tonnes, reflecting the material-intensive nature of solar energy systems. India is expected to enter a significant EoL waste phase after 2035, marking a critical transition point for waste management systems. The analysis demonstrates that circular economy pathways can reduce landfill dependency by over 70%, while enabling the recovery of valuable materials such as aluminium, silicon, and silver. From an environmental perspective, recycling activities generate moderate process emissions of approximately 30,000–35,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually, but result in substantially higher avoided emissions of 2.5–3.1 million tonnes of CO₂, leading to a strong net environmental benefit. Economically, the viability of recycling systems is driven primarily by high-value material recovery, particularly silver, with long-term net benefits observed under medium and high deployment scenarios. However, outcomes remain sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and policy support. The study further identifies a gap between regulatory design and implementation in India’s E-Waste and Battery Waste Management Rules, particularly in collection efficiency, infrastructure development, and data transparency. The integration of informal sector actors and the adoption of digital monitoring systems are identified as critical enablers for improving Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) compliance. Overall, the study concludes that transitioning to a circular economy for solar PV and battery waste in India is environmentally necessary, economically viable, and strategically important for achieving resource security and climate goals.