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<p>Various variables have been used in modeling the mineral supply chain, such as pricing effects and production capacity, which can generate fluctuations along the supply chain. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how these variables interact in shaping supply–demand dynamics in mineral markets. This study aims to project the future of Indonesia’s downstream bauxite sector using system dynamics modeling. Employing a quantitative approach and secondary data on pricing effects, population, resources and reserves, primary and secondary aluminum production, and aluminum consumption in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023, the results show that increasing smelter-grade alumina production is necessary to mitigate aluminum shortages while supporting population growth and downstream industrial development. This finding challenges earlier assumptions based on a business-as-usual scenario and highlights a feasible solution to what was previously considered a complex issue. Our analysis suggests that industrial regulations promoting the use of scrap as a secondary material could play a key role in strengthening the domestic supply chain. We expect this model to serve as an initial step toward broader project-feasibility assessments, particularly those related to developing a circular economy and forecasting the future demand for aluminum products.</p>

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Analysis and Projection of Bauxite Extraction in Indonesia Through System Dynamics Modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Hendrik Hendrik,
  • Nurmaya Arofah,
  • A. Silvan Erusani,
  • Akhmad Fauzi,
  • Widiatmaka Widiatmaka,
  • Dyah Tjahyandari Suryaningtyas,
  • Florentinus Firdiyono,
  • Sri Handoyo Mukti

摘要

Various variables have been used in modeling the mineral supply chain, such as pricing effects and production capacity, which can generate fluctuations along the supply chain. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how these variables interact in shaping supply–demand dynamics in mineral markets. This study aims to project the future of Indonesia’s downstream bauxite sector using system dynamics modeling. Employing a quantitative approach and secondary data on pricing effects, population, resources and reserves, primary and secondary aluminum production, and aluminum consumption in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023, the results show that increasing smelter-grade alumina production is necessary to mitigate aluminum shortages while supporting population growth and downstream industrial development. This finding challenges earlier assumptions based on a business-as-usual scenario and highlights a feasible solution to what was previously considered a complex issue. Our analysis suggests that industrial regulations promoting the use of scrap as a secondary material could play a key role in strengthening the domestic supply chain. We expect this model to serve as an initial step toward broader project-feasibility assessments, particularly those related to developing a circular economy and forecasting the future demand for aluminum products.