Eco-welfare States and Just Transitions: A Multi-method Analysis and Research Agenda

This paper critically examines the literature on eco-welfare states and just transitions, laying the groundwork for a comprehensive multi-method research agenda. Whereas previous research has found mixed evidence on the relationship between welfare states and environmental performance, this study finds synergy between welfare and environmental variables. It also offers explanations for residual variance, both between countries and within countries over time, by considering how structural and institutional features of the political economy influence policy interventions and behaviour. The main finding is that a country’s level of welfare state robustness matters more for environmental performance than its trend toward welfare state entrenchment or retrenchment over time. Using a novel time-variant measure of welfare state robustness and hierarchical mixed-effects modelling, it is shown that countries with robust welfare states emit significantly less CO₂ on average than countries with weak welfare states. However, change in welfare state robustness within countries over time is not a significant predictor of emissions reductions. High level comparative case analysis of Denmark and the United Kingdom sheds explanatory light on causal mechanisms, as both jurisdictions have achieved significant CO₂ reductions despite different welfare policy profiles, structural circumstances, and institutional arrangements. Two main causal drivers are identified: compensation and executive action that imposes transition costs. Implications for governance of just transitions are discussed in the context of an empirically-oriented research agenda dedicated to assessing relationships between elements in causal chains and measuring discrete effects of policy interventions.