Quantifying the Effect of Partisanship on Citizens Collective Action Against Corruption in African Democracies: A Quasi-Experimental Approach
摘要
In many African democracies, political parties mediate access to information, coordination, privileges, and protection, shaping citizens beliefs about their capacity to fight corruption. While prior research has identified key drivers of collective action, less is known about how variation in partisan attachment influences such engagement. This paper asks whether non-partisanship lowers perceived collective efficacy and, if so, for whom. Drawing on Afrobarometer data Rounds 6–7 (2014–2018) from 34 democracies (N = 64,192), we estimate the relationship between party attachment and perceived collective efficacy using nearest-neighbor matching, weighted probit models, and Lewbel IV. We find that, at the aggregate level, non-partisans are less likely to believe in citizens capacity to combat corruption. Yet disaggregated models reveal a Simpson’s paradox: non-partisan men display a strong positive effect however, the positive effect for non-partisan women is significantly weaker in magnitude compared to men. Similarly, urban non-partisans express greater belief in collective efficacy, whereas rural non-partisans register diminished confidence. We interpret diminished perceived efficacy among non-partisans as evidence of exclusion from party-mediated infrastructures and the higher costs of outsider status, reflecting a strategy of deliberate political alienation rather than civic empowerment. At the same time, the results highlight non-partisan pathways that can foster anti-corruption participation, particularly among women and rural residents, thereby refining collective action theory in contexts where corruption is institutionalized.