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<p>This paper studies whether climate-related uncertainty and transition risk shocks show up in Turkish financial variables, and when they matter. Using weekly data, we separate two climate indicators: global climate policy uncertainty (GCPU) and transition risk shock intensity (TRI). These links are examined through two core domestic market-pricing channels, BIST 100 returns and USD/TRY returns, while the VIX is used as a benchmark for general global risk sentiment. After testing stationarity with the fractional frequency Fourier ADF procedure, we combine time-varying causality tests with wavelet transform coherence maps. The results are episodic: the strongest linkages appear at short and medium horizons, clustering in stress and rapid repricing periods. GCPU connects to both equities and exchange rate returns in horizon-specific windows. TRI shows similar regime dependence. The VIX-based benchmarking reveals meaningful overlap with generic global risk sentiment, but selected horizon-specific patterns remain visible, especially for TRI-based relationships. By separating climate-policy uncertainty from transition-risk intensity and examining their horizon-specific pricing in Türkiye’s equity and currency markets, the paper adds emerging-market evidence on the episodic financial imprint of climate risk.</p>

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The Financial fingerprint of climate risk in Türkiye: climate policy uncertainty and transition risk in equity and currency markets

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • Hasan Kazak,
  • Ahmet Tayfur Akcan,
  • Isabet Ebru Yazicioglu,
  • Mehmet Burak Ceran,
  • Abdullah Kilicarslan

摘要

This paper studies whether climate-related uncertainty and transition risk shocks show up in Turkish financial variables, and when they matter. Using weekly data, we separate two climate indicators: global climate policy uncertainty (GCPU) and transition risk shock intensity (TRI). These links are examined through two core domestic market-pricing channels, BIST 100 returns and USD/TRY returns, while the VIX is used as a benchmark for general global risk sentiment. After testing stationarity with the fractional frequency Fourier ADF procedure, we combine time-varying causality tests with wavelet transform coherence maps. The results are episodic: the strongest linkages appear at short and medium horizons, clustering in stress and rapid repricing periods. GCPU connects to both equities and exchange rate returns in horizon-specific windows. TRI shows similar regime dependence. The VIX-based benchmarking reveals meaningful overlap with generic global risk sentiment, but selected horizon-specific patterns remain visible, especially for TRI-based relationships. By separating climate-policy uncertainty from transition-risk intensity and examining their horizon-specific pricing in Türkiye’s equity and currency markets, the paper adds emerging-market evidence on the episodic financial imprint of climate risk.