<p>Consumer spending decisions are crucial for macroeconomic stability; however, the distributional effects of exchange rate volatility on household consumption remain insufficiently explored. Although income and interest rates are well-established determinants of consumption, recent empirical studies have increasingly emphasized the role of exchange rate volatility in shaping household consumption patterns. To address this empirical gap, the present study examines the distributional effects of exchange rate volatility on household consumption across G7 economies using balanced panel data from 1973 to 2022. To achieve this objective, the study employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (<i>MMQR</i>) approach to estimate these distributional effects across the lower (5th and 25th), median (50th), and upper (75th and 95th) quantiles of the consumption distribution. The empirical findings reveal that income exerts a positive and significant effect on household consumption, whereas interest rates and the real exchange rate negatively affect it across the distribution. Notably, exchange rate volatility exhibits a positive and significant effect on household consumption across most quantiles. However, the magnitude of this effect varies across the consumption distribution, indicating distributional heterogeneity. This finding suggests that G-7 households exhibit some resilience during periods of exchange rate uncertainty, potentially supported by access to financial risk-mitigation instruments. In conclusion, these findings highlight the importance for G-7 policymakers to consider the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations when formulating interest rate and exchange rate policies. Furthermore, targeted fiscal interventions and enhanced financial literacy programs may play a pivotal role in supporting household consumption and maintaining macroeconomic stability during periods of economic uncertainty.</p>

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Distributional effects of exchange rate volatility on household consumption: evidence from G-7 economies

  • Waqar Khalid,
  • Huri Gül Aybudak,
  • Irfan Civcir,
  • Mehdi Seraj

摘要

Consumer spending decisions are crucial for macroeconomic stability; however, the distributional effects of exchange rate volatility on household consumption remain insufficiently explored. Although income and interest rates are well-established determinants of consumption, recent empirical studies have increasingly emphasized the role of exchange rate volatility in shaping household consumption patterns. To address this empirical gap, the present study examines the distributional effects of exchange rate volatility on household consumption across G7 economies using balanced panel data from 1973 to 2022. To achieve this objective, the study employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) approach to estimate these distributional effects across the lower (5th and 25th), median (50th), and upper (75th and 95th) quantiles of the consumption distribution. The empirical findings reveal that income exerts a positive and significant effect on household consumption, whereas interest rates and the real exchange rate negatively affect it across the distribution. Notably, exchange rate volatility exhibits a positive and significant effect on household consumption across most quantiles. However, the magnitude of this effect varies across the consumption distribution, indicating distributional heterogeneity. This finding suggests that G-7 households exhibit some resilience during periods of exchange rate uncertainty, potentially supported by access to financial risk-mitigation instruments. In conclusion, these findings highlight the importance for G-7 policymakers to consider the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations when formulating interest rate and exchange rate policies. Furthermore, targeted fiscal interventions and enhanced financial literacy programs may play a pivotal role in supporting household consumption and maintaining macroeconomic stability during periods of economic uncertainty.