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<p>This study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate change on economic growth and inflation in the MENA region. Using a balanced panel of ten countries over the period 2000–2023, the analysis applies panel data techniques to explore both long-run and short-run relationships. The findings indicate that environmental pressures, particularly carbon emissions, are associated with a decline in economic growth, suggesting that climate-related damages may hinder productivity. Temperature variations appear to have a mixed effect, while precipitation is found to contribute to lower inflation levels, possibly through its impact on agricultural supply. However, short-term dynamics show limited influence of climate variables on growth. These results underline the importance of incorporating climate considerations into macroeconomic policy design. In particular, strategies related to energy transition, water resource management, and price stability are essential for enhancing economic resilience in the MENA region.</p>

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Climate change as a macroeconomic risk MENA evidence from growth and inflation dynamics

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月30日

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  • Said Maizzou,
  • Abdelhak Anajar,
  • Mohamed Rahmo

摘要

This study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate change on economic growth and inflation in the MENA region. Using a balanced panel of ten countries over the period 2000–2023, the analysis applies panel data techniques to explore both long-run and short-run relationships. The findings indicate that environmental pressures, particularly carbon emissions, are associated with a decline in economic growth, suggesting that climate-related damages may hinder productivity. Temperature variations appear to have a mixed effect, while precipitation is found to contribute to lower inflation levels, possibly through its impact on agricultural supply. However, short-term dynamics show limited influence of climate variables on growth. These results underline the importance of incorporating climate considerations into macroeconomic policy design. In particular, strategies related to energy transition, water resource management, and price stability are essential for enhancing economic resilience in the MENA region.