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<p>Potato is believed to be one of the five most important staple crop towards attaining SDG2 of United Nations. SAARC countries are the home of almost 24% of the world population, as such for food and nutritional security successful production and availability of potato in sustainable manner play important role. Using time series data from1961 to 2023 for the SAARC countries, this study is devoted to analyse the status of production and import scenario along with their sustainability and future projection. Past performance study reveals that there has been many fold improvement viz. 0.60% in Bhutan to 5.8% CAGR of area in Pakistan, 1.59% in Bhutan to 7.08% CAGR of production in Pakistan and 0.83% in Afghanistan to 2.11% CAGR of productivity in Bangladesh. Mostly cubic, compound and other nonlinear trends are found to be suitable to explain the trend of production and trade behaviour. The higher sustainabilities are observed in low producing countries like Bhutan, Sri Lanka. ARIMA modeling, used for future projection up to 2028, forecasts that India will remain the highest producer (59.91&#xa0;million tons) with a productivity of 25.78 t/ha, followed by Pakistan and Bangladesh. Nepal is projected to remain the region’s highest importer with an expected quantity of 413,371 metric tons and a value of 108,570 thousand USD in 2028, followed by Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The results advocate for policy, technical, and management interventions focused on increasing per-hectare yield sustainably in major producing nations to ensure assured food and nutritional security in the region.</p>

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An analytical overview of potato production and trade scenario in SAARC Countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月2日

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  • Mrittika Das,
  • Anisha Sil,
  • Soumik Ray,
  • Pradeep Mishra,
  • Achal Lama,
  • Pradip Kumar Sahu

摘要

Potato is believed to be one of the five most important staple crop towards attaining SDG2 of United Nations. SAARC countries are the home of almost 24% of the world population, as such for food and nutritional security successful production and availability of potato in sustainable manner play important role. Using time series data from1961 to 2023 for the SAARC countries, this study is devoted to analyse the status of production and import scenario along with their sustainability and future projection. Past performance study reveals that there has been many fold improvement viz. 0.60% in Bhutan to 5.8% CAGR of area in Pakistan, 1.59% in Bhutan to 7.08% CAGR of production in Pakistan and 0.83% in Afghanistan to 2.11% CAGR of productivity in Bangladesh. Mostly cubic, compound and other nonlinear trends are found to be suitable to explain the trend of production and trade behaviour. The higher sustainabilities are observed in low producing countries like Bhutan, Sri Lanka. ARIMA modeling, used for future projection up to 2028, forecasts that India will remain the highest producer (59.91 million tons) with a productivity of 25.78 t/ha, followed by Pakistan and Bangladesh. Nepal is projected to remain the region’s highest importer with an expected quantity of 413,371 metric tons and a value of 108,570 thousand USD in 2028, followed by Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The results advocate for policy, technical, and management interventions focused on increasing per-hectare yield sustainably in major producing nations to ensure assured food and nutritional security in the region.