The evolution of research on the middle-income trap: a bibliometric and conceptual review
摘要
The middle-income trap (MIT) is a significant obstacle for countries moving from middle-income to high-income status. This study explores the MIT research landscape using the Scopus database, recognizing influential journals, authors, institutions, and publication trends. The research is primarily shaped by contributions from the United States of America and China. The topic trends mapping suggests a shift in the focus of MIT research from developmental issues to a policy-oriented, sustainability-sensitive, and globally integrated approach. The thematic map ascertains human capital and income distribution as developed and highly relevant ideas. Themes like migration, rural areas, and social modalities fit within the category of advanced but isolated ones. The study of highly cited papers recognizes multiple dimensions that impact MIT, including structural transformation, inequality, globalization, economic complexity, financial stability, and institutional quality. The challenge of overcoming MIT demands resolutions deeply rooted in regional specificity, requiring alignment with socioeconomic structures, institutional legacies, and cultural norms. Hence, the resolutions should exclude prescriptive formulas, as evidenced by research highlighting the interdependence of institutions and culture and the limitations of generalized growth models. This study while recognizing critical voids in the literature, including the underrepresentation of country-specific policy interventions and the narrow focus on post-pandemic transformations. The study bridges quantitative mapping with qualitative interpretation, enabling deeper insight into the mechanisms underlying growth slowdowns and development traps by tracing the thematic shift from early development-centric explanations toward a policy-oriented, sustainability-sensitive, and institutionally grounded research agenda.