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<p>Agriculture is a cornerstone of African economies, contributing significantly to the gross domestic product (GDP) through export revenues. However, climate change poses a major global challenge that disproportionately affects agriculture. The impact diminishes export revenue by reducing the quantity and market value of agricultural commodities. The effect of climate vulnerability on agricultural exports, particularly across regional integration zones, remains underexplored in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study analyzes the impact of climate vulnerability on agricultural commodity exports across 43 SSA countries from 2000 to 2020, considering regional heterogeneity. Using Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) and Instrumental Variables Two-Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) estimation techniques for robustness, the findings indicate that climate vulnerability reduces agricultural export value. However, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) stands out as the only region where export values have increased, owing to more advanced policies, infrastructure, and technological adoption aimed at mitigating climate risks in agriculture. To counteract climate-induced export declines, policies should prioritize enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity through climate-resilient agricultural practices. These include the adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, improved irrigation systems and sustainable land management techniques. Additionally, strengthening regional cooperation within economic integration zones can facilitate trade, improve market access, and bolster the competitiveness of SSA’s agricultural exports amid growing climate challenges in the region.</p>

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Effect of climate vulnerability on agricultural commodities export in sub-Saharan Africa: an heterogeneous effect based on integration zones

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月16日

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  • Armand Fréjuis Akpa,
  • Insa Sané,
  • Sekou 1 Keita

摘要

Agriculture is a cornerstone of African economies, contributing significantly to the gross domestic product (GDP) through export revenues. However, climate change poses a major global challenge that disproportionately affects agriculture. The impact diminishes export revenue by reducing the quantity and market value of agricultural commodities. The effect of climate vulnerability on agricultural exports, particularly across regional integration zones, remains underexplored in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study analyzes the impact of climate vulnerability on agricultural commodity exports across 43 SSA countries from 2000 to 2020, considering regional heterogeneity. Using Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) and Instrumental Variables Two-Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) estimation techniques for robustness, the findings indicate that climate vulnerability reduces agricultural export value. However, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) stands out as the only region where export values have increased, owing to more advanced policies, infrastructure, and technological adoption aimed at mitigating climate risks in agriculture. To counteract climate-induced export declines, policies should prioritize enhancing farmers’ adaptive capacity through climate-resilient agricultural practices. These include the adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, improved irrigation systems and sustainable land management techniques. Additionally, strengthening regional cooperation within economic integration zones can facilitate trade, improve market access, and bolster the competitiveness of SSA’s agricultural exports amid growing climate challenges in the region.