Economic hardship and voting intentions: the influence of inflation in the U.S. presidential choices

Economic hardships profoundly shape political behavior in general elections. This study uses the cross-sectional ANES 2024 Pilot Study Survey data to explore the dual dynamics of pocketbook and sociotropic voting in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. A novel Inflation Behavior Index (IBR) is introduced to capture the cumulative impact of inflation on individual economic behavior over the past year. The study has three key objectives: first, to develop a robust economic behavior index; second, to examine how these economic experiences influence political behavior through mathematical models; and third, to explore which economic experience might challenge party loyalty. The results demonstrate that personal economic difficulties increase the likelihood of voting against the incumbent, regardless of party alignment (pocketbook voting). In contrast, negative national economic perceptions (sociotropic voting) do not have as strong an effect on party defection. The study also finds that part-time employees, students, and unemployed individuals, whom I term “Hopeful Voters,” are more likely to vote for the incumbent, independent of economic conditions. Partisanship remains a critical determinant of voting intentions for the 2024 election. Additionally, higher educational attainment consistently shows more likelihood of voting intention for the incumbent in both economic voting scenarios. These findings underscore that personal economic experiences and perceptions of the national economy will drive voting decisions in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The practical implications of these findings can provide valuable insights for policymakers and political campaign strategists.