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<p>This study examines climate variability and its impacts on the horticulture and livestock sectors in Jammu Province, India. Primary data collected from 550 households across subtropical, intermediate, and temperate zones were combined with long-term rainfall and temperature records. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to analyze spatial and temporal trends. The results show clear spatial variation in rainfall patterns, with declining trends in hilly districts such as Katra, Batote, Bhaderwah, and Banihal, while lowland areas such as Jammu show increasing trends. Minimum temperature is rising across most districts, particularly in mid and high elevation regions. These climatic changes are affecting agricultural systems in multiple ways. Reduced rainfall is increasing water stress for orchards, while warmer nights are promoting pest proliferation. In hilly regions, slight warming is affecting flowering and fruit set. Livestock systems are also affected through increased heat stress, changing disease patterns, and a shift in livestock composition, with a decline in traditional species and growth in poultry. Farmers’ perceptions largely support these observed trends, with most reporting changing seasons, water scarcity, and crop losses. The study highlights the uneven nature of climate impacts across agro-climatic zones and emphasizes the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to support sustainable Himalayan agriculture.</p>

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Assessing climate variability and its perceived impact on livestock and horticulture in Jammu Province of the Himalayan region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Mansoor Ahmad,
  • Shafiq Ahmed,
  • Rashid Latief Bhatt,
  • Inzamam-Ul-Haq,
  • Habibullah,
  • Md. Sarfaraz Asgher

摘要

This study examines climate variability and its impacts on the horticulture and livestock sectors in Jammu Province, India. Primary data collected from 550 households across subtropical, intermediate, and temperate zones were combined with long-term rainfall and temperature records. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to analyze spatial and temporal trends. The results show clear spatial variation in rainfall patterns, with declining trends in hilly districts such as Katra, Batote, Bhaderwah, and Banihal, while lowland areas such as Jammu show increasing trends. Minimum temperature is rising across most districts, particularly in mid and high elevation regions. These climatic changes are affecting agricultural systems in multiple ways. Reduced rainfall is increasing water stress for orchards, while warmer nights are promoting pest proliferation. In hilly regions, slight warming is affecting flowering and fruit set. Livestock systems are also affected through increased heat stress, changing disease patterns, and a shift in livestock composition, with a decline in traditional species and growth in poultry. Farmers’ perceptions largely support these observed trends, with most reporting changing seasons, water scarcity, and crop losses. The study highlights the uneven nature of climate impacts across agro-climatic zones and emphasizes the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to support sustainable Himalayan agriculture.