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<p>Rural households in rain-fed agricultural economies endure recurrent shocks that may lead to multidimensional poverty, with resilience serving as a mediator that alters how these shocks translate into poverty outcomes. This study investigates the relationship between shocks, resilience, and multidimensional poverty in East Wallaga rural households. A total of 394 rural households participated in the survey. Structural equation modelling (SEM) method, employing bootstrapped mediation tests, was used to analyse the effects of shocks on multidimensional poverty and the mediating effect of resilience through both direct and indirect pathways. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to examine whether the observed variables adequately represented the hypothesized latent construct. The findings show that shocks are positively associated with multidimensional poverty (β = 0.34, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), and have a significant negative impact on resilience (β = -0.62). Resilience also had a significant negative effect on multidimensional poverty (β = -0.31), indicating partial mediation; 36.1% of the total effect of shocks is mediated through resilience (indirect effect β = 0.1922, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Strengthening household resilience should therefore be treated as an important intervention since over one-third of the total effect of shocks on multidimensional poverty operates through resilience. Investments in rural infrastructure, shock-responsive social protection, asset building programs, and livelihood diversification are likely to substantially mitigate the poverty effects of recurrent shocks.</p>

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The mediating effect of resilience on the relationship between shocks and multidimensional poverty: evidence from rain-fed agricultural economies of East Wallaga, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Temeche Tefera,
  • Bezabih Emana,
  • Getachew Magnar

摘要

Rural households in rain-fed agricultural economies endure recurrent shocks that may lead to multidimensional poverty, with resilience serving as a mediator that alters how these shocks translate into poverty outcomes. This study investigates the relationship between shocks, resilience, and multidimensional poverty in East Wallaga rural households. A total of 394 rural households participated in the survey. Structural equation modelling (SEM) method, employing bootstrapped mediation tests, was used to analyse the effects of shocks on multidimensional poverty and the mediating effect of resilience through both direct and indirect pathways. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to examine whether the observed variables adequately represented the hypothesized latent construct. The findings show that shocks are positively associated with multidimensional poverty (β = 0.34, p < 0.001), and have a significant negative impact on resilience (β = -0.62). Resilience also had a significant negative effect on multidimensional poverty (β = -0.31), indicating partial mediation; 36.1% of the total effect of shocks is mediated through resilience (indirect effect β = 0.1922, p < 0.001). Strengthening household resilience should therefore be treated as an important intervention since over one-third of the total effect of shocks on multidimensional poverty operates through resilience. Investments in rural infrastructure, shock-responsive social protection, asset building programs, and livelihood diversification are likely to substantially mitigate the poverty effects of recurrent shocks.