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<p>This research examines the dynamic shifts in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) patterns in the tehsils of Haryana, which are adjacent to Delhi, over three decades, from 1991 to 2022. Through comprehensive analysis of LULC data and demographic trends, the study investigates the drivers and consequences of these changes. The results reveal significant transformations in key LULC classes, with agriculture, barren land, and vegetation experiencing consistent declines, while built-up areas and water bodies show increasing trends. Population growth and urbanization emerge as primary drivers behind these shifts, with the population more than doubling from 1.9&#xa0;million in 1991 to 4.0&#xa0;million in 2011, accompanied by a surge in urbanization rates from 42.3% to 76.5% over the same period. These demographic trends have exerted immense pressure on land resources, leading to land conversion, habitat loss, and environmental degradation. This study investigates future Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) trends using Transition Potential Modelling with the MOLUSCE tool in QGIS version 2.18.15. By analysing LULC data and employing predictive modelling techniques. These findings suggest a persistent shift in land use patterns, with implications for environmental sustainability, resource management, and urban development. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable land management practices and evidence-based policies to mitigate the adverse impacts of rapid urbanization and population growth on ecological integrity and human well-being. By fostering interdisciplinary collaborations and informed decision-making, it is possible to chart a path toward a more resilient and sustainable future for the study area and beyond.</p>

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Forecasting the urban footprint: LULC change and transition modelling in Haryana’s peri-urban tehsils

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

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  • Sanju Bala,
  • Sajad Nabi Dar

摘要

This research examines the dynamic shifts in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) patterns in the tehsils of Haryana, which are adjacent to Delhi, over three decades, from 1991 to 2022. Through comprehensive analysis of LULC data and demographic trends, the study investigates the drivers and consequences of these changes. The results reveal significant transformations in key LULC classes, with agriculture, barren land, and vegetation experiencing consistent declines, while built-up areas and water bodies show increasing trends. Population growth and urbanization emerge as primary drivers behind these shifts, with the population more than doubling from 1.9 million in 1991 to 4.0 million in 2011, accompanied by a surge in urbanization rates from 42.3% to 76.5% over the same period. These demographic trends have exerted immense pressure on land resources, leading to land conversion, habitat loss, and environmental degradation. This study investigates future Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) trends using Transition Potential Modelling with the MOLUSCE tool in QGIS version 2.18.15. By analysing LULC data and employing predictive modelling techniques. These findings suggest a persistent shift in land use patterns, with implications for environmental sustainability, resource management, and urban development. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable land management practices and evidence-based policies to mitigate the adverse impacts of rapid urbanization and population growth on ecological integrity and human well-being. By fostering interdisciplinary collaborations and informed decision-making, it is possible to chart a path toward a more resilient and sustainable future for the study area and beyond.