A geospatial mapping of insurgence in Northern Nigeria between 2009–2020

The paper attempted to make spatial sense of the activities of the insurgent groups of Boko Haram and ISWA, especially in the northern region of Nigeria. The study leveraged the ACLED database of insurgent-related events in Nigeria between 2009 and 2020. A total of 1865 events and 21,621 fatalities relating to the region under study were analyzed. Using geospatial techniques, the study examined the two groups’ spatial and temporal distributions, attack patterns, and fatality rates. The study identified the northeast State of Borno as the epicenter of the insurgent groups. Temporal analysis showed fluctuating trends of insurgent attacks with occasional declines linked to military successes. The incursion of ISWA as a significant group in year 2020 added a new complexity to the insurgency landscape of Nigeria. Also, directional spread analysis highlights the evolving nature of the attacks, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding. The paper provides a spatial understanding of the characterization of insurgency in Nigeria, thereby underscoring the necessity for adaptive and responsive strategies to effectively counter insurgency in the affected region.