Predicting habitat suitability of Barbilophozia lycopodioides (Wallr.) Loeske, under current climatic condition in the global scale
摘要
Barbilophozia lycopodioides (Wallr.) Loeske is a holarctic liverwort species with a wide distribution from North America through Europe to Asia. Its occurrence in the Indian Western Himalaya in Jammu and Kashmir, represents the southernmost known extent of its global distribution. In the present study, we used the MaxEnt species distribution modelling approach, a logistic regression–based algorithm, to assess the global climatic and environmental suitability of B. lycopodioides. In order to predict the ecological niche and extent of occurrence of this species, we used a set of bioclimatic and terrain-related predictor variables. Model predictions indicate that out of the total global land area, 4.26% (9.76 million km2) is highly suitable while 4.71% (10.79 million km2) and 7.76% (17.78 million km2) is moderately and least suitable respectively, for this species under current climatic condition. Highly suitable habitats are concentrated in boreal and alpine regions of Northern and Central Europe, Northeast Asia (Japan and the Korean Peninsula), and northern North America. Climatically analogous high-latitude and montane regions of the Southern Hemisphere also show high suitability. The areas with mean annual temperature range of − 12 °C to 9 °C shows high suitability. This temperature range is prevalent in several holarctic regions in North America and Europe, the Himalaya and Tibetan plateau in Asia, and on the western edge of the South American continent. We tested the reliability of the predicted niche model for this species in our recent studies in Jammu and Kashmir (India). Predictive ecological niche modelling will help to understand the micro-climatic niche requirements and potential habitat suitability of bryophytes especially geographically disjunct species. A possible bird-mediated dispersal is also speculated and discussed.