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<p>Vegetation dynamics in the Himalayas biodiversity hotspot are critical for overseeing the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Above-ground carbon (AGC) stocks in the Himalayas are susceptible to environmental factors but are also beneficially affected by ecological restoration and tree-planting endeavours. However, significant uncertainties remain around changes in AGC stocks over the last few decades. Given the strong positive correlation between AGC and the vegetation indices, the current research used the Random Forest model to estimate the annual AGC from the four types of vegetation indices of the Himalayas from 2003 to 2023. During this period, the gross AGC of HBH increased from 37.86 MgC/ha to 45.54 MgC/ha with a net rate of 0.384 MgC/ha/yr. Spatially entire region exhibited AGC gain, with non-forested areas showing comparatively higher increases than forests. Correlation analysis with environmental variables identified rising temperature as a negative driver of AGC accumulation, while soil texture variables, particularly clay content and pH, as positive contributors. The study highlights the importance of targeted conservation strategies and sustainable land management for maximising carbon sequestration. These findings provide valuable inputs for regional climate mitigation strategies, including REDD + and afforestation initiatives, and underscore the role of Himalayan ecosystems in regional and global terrestrial carbon budgets under a changing climate. Additionally, our focus should be on long-term climate-vegetation interactions and adaptive management strategies for sustaining AGC stocks in the face of environmental change.</p>

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of aboveground carbon in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot: trends, drivers, and conservation implications

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月16日

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  • Vikas Sharma,
  • Ipsita Sarma,
  • R Meera,
  • Md Asif Chowdhary,
  • Hari Shankar Gadri,
  • Sarbani Roy,
  • Rohini Dwivedi,
  • Pankaj Bhardwaj

摘要

Vegetation dynamics in the Himalayas biodiversity hotspot are critical for overseeing the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Above-ground carbon (AGC) stocks in the Himalayas are susceptible to environmental factors but are also beneficially affected by ecological restoration and tree-planting endeavours. However, significant uncertainties remain around changes in AGC stocks over the last few decades. Given the strong positive correlation between AGC and the vegetation indices, the current research used the Random Forest model to estimate the annual AGC from the four types of vegetation indices of the Himalayas from 2003 to 2023. During this period, the gross AGC of HBH increased from 37.86 MgC/ha to 45.54 MgC/ha with a net rate of 0.384 MgC/ha/yr. Spatially entire region exhibited AGC gain, with non-forested areas showing comparatively higher increases than forests. Correlation analysis with environmental variables identified rising temperature as a negative driver of AGC accumulation, while soil texture variables, particularly clay content and pH, as positive contributors. The study highlights the importance of targeted conservation strategies and sustainable land management for maximising carbon sequestration. These findings provide valuable inputs for regional climate mitigation strategies, including REDD + and afforestation initiatives, and underscore the role of Himalayan ecosystems in regional and global terrestrial carbon budgets under a changing climate. Additionally, our focus should be on long-term climate-vegetation interactions and adaptive management strategies for sustaining AGC stocks in the face of environmental change.