Species distribution modeling predicts different distribution alterations in two neotropical psittacidae species under climate change scenarios
摘要
Neotropical habitats are among the most threatened of the world, and in recent times, anthropogenic action has been potentiated processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly affects biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Amazonia and savanna-like ecosystems (Cerrado, Caatinga and Chaco) are two of the Neotropical biomes most impacted by human activities and climate change and understanding the dynamics of the fauna in these environments in the face of anthropic changes, is crucial to promote actions to safeguard Neotropical biodiversity. Here, we developed species distribution models of two Psittacidae species, one endemic to Amazonia and another largely distributed in Neotropical Southern Hemisphere savanna woodlands. Our aim was to understand the historical and current distribution of studied species in relation to the environmental climate changes through time, and to project the future distribution of these species in different hypothetical scenarios of future climate change. Our results indicate that both species were widely distributed in the Middle Holocene, and that they were fundamentally allopatric. This recovered pattern was similar to the present distribution modeled. However, in the future projections, the Amazonian species retreated remarkably its distribution, especially in the most extreme scenario, while the savanna species did not expand its area of distribution towards the unoccupied territory. Our results further reinforce the notion that climate change can cause more drastic and dangerous effects on species associated with forest biomes and that these areas may be the most impacted by the loss of biodiversity in a near future.