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<p>Despite growing evidence of climate- and human-mediated disruptions to sediment regimes in peninsular Indian river systems, integrated, process-based frameworks linking erosion, export, connectivity, and retention for reservoir management remain limited, particularly for aging infrastructures such as Hirakud Dam, which has lost 27% of its storage capacity. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs–Sediment Delivery Ratio (InVEST-SDR) model to evaluate scenario-consistent sediment dynamics- including soil loss, sediment export, and retention capacity in the Hirakud upstream catchment under Land Use and Land Cover Transformation (LULCT) and climate change scenarios (SSP1–RCP2.6 and SSP5–RCP8.5). Key projections for 2033 indicate: (1) reduced average soil erosion (12.70–13.41 t/ha/yr), with high/very-high erosion zones declining by up to 4.12%; (2) increased sediment export (+ 6.89–9.06%) despite declining gross erosion; and (3) declining sediment retention across most erosion classes, except very-low (&lt; 5 t/ha/yr). Approximately 35% of sub-watersheds exhibit above-average soil loss and export, with middle-catchment areas demonstrating strong retention and heightened sedimentation risk in reservoirs. These findings reveal that climate-driven retention gains in inland water bodies fail to offset systemic shifts in gross erosion, highlighting a critical decoupling between erosion and export driven by changes in hydrological connectivity and spatial retention patterns. Rather than serving as a basin-specific application alone, the study provides a connectivity-informed, integrated assessment of erosion–export–retention dynamics under internally consistent scenarios, highlighting the need for targeted sub-watershed interventions to enhance reservoir sustainability under climatic and land-use uncertainty.</p>

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Sediment dynamics amid climate change in the upstream catchment of an aging reservoir in Peninsular India: an InVEST-SDR and downscaling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月24日

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  • Tapas Das,
  • Krishna Gopal Ghosh

摘要

Despite growing evidence of climate- and human-mediated disruptions to sediment regimes in peninsular Indian river systems, integrated, process-based frameworks linking erosion, export, connectivity, and retention for reservoir management remain limited, particularly for aging infrastructures such as Hirakud Dam, which has lost 27% of its storage capacity. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs–Sediment Delivery Ratio (InVEST-SDR) model to evaluate scenario-consistent sediment dynamics- including soil loss, sediment export, and retention capacity in the Hirakud upstream catchment under Land Use and Land Cover Transformation (LULCT) and climate change scenarios (SSP1–RCP2.6 and SSP5–RCP8.5). Key projections for 2033 indicate: (1) reduced average soil erosion (12.70–13.41 t/ha/yr), with high/very-high erosion zones declining by up to 4.12%; (2) increased sediment export (+ 6.89–9.06%) despite declining gross erosion; and (3) declining sediment retention across most erosion classes, except very-low (< 5 t/ha/yr). Approximately 35% of sub-watersheds exhibit above-average soil loss and export, with middle-catchment areas demonstrating strong retention and heightened sedimentation risk in reservoirs. These findings reveal that climate-driven retention gains in inland water bodies fail to offset systemic shifts in gross erosion, highlighting a critical decoupling between erosion and export driven by changes in hydrological connectivity and spatial retention patterns. Rather than serving as a basin-specific application alone, the study provides a connectivity-informed, integrated assessment of erosion–export–retention dynamics under internally consistent scenarios, highlighting the need for targeted sub-watershed interventions to enhance reservoir sustainability under climatic and land-use uncertainty.