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<p>Groundwater depletion has become a critical challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, where agricultural expansion and intensive pumping have led to severe aquifer stress. The Sirjan Plain aquifer in central Iran exemplifies this crisis. This study applied the MODFLOW model, calibrated and validated under both steady-state and transient conditions, to evaluate groundwater responses under alternative management strategies over a 5-year horizon (2019–2023). Three scenarios were tested: (i) baseline abstraction without external intervention, substitution of groundwater withdrawals with Persian Gulf water transfer to the Gol-Gohar mining complex, and deficit irrigation of pistachio orchards with 25% and 40% reductions in irrigation supply. Simulation results under the baseline scenario revealed continuous water table decline, with localized drawdowns exceeding 8&#xa0;m. The Persian Gulf water transfer provided partial relief, raising groundwater levels in affected wells by less than 1&#xa0;m. In contrast, deficit irrigation strategies produced larger improvements, with water level increases of up to 1.9&#xa0;m, particularly when combined with water transfer. Nevertheless, despite these benefits, the aquifer remained under a general declining trend, underscoring the limits of isolated interventions. These findings demonstrate that while both water transfer and deficit irrigation can mitigate groundwater depletion, achieving long-term sustainability will require integrated water resources management, including crop pattern adjustment, managed aquifer recharge, and stricter abstraction control.</p>

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Modeling groundwater responses to the Persian Gulf water transfer and deficit irrigation in the Sirjan Plain

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月11日

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  • Mohammad Najmaddini,
  • Somaye Janatrostami

摘要

Groundwater depletion has become a critical challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, where agricultural expansion and intensive pumping have led to severe aquifer stress. The Sirjan Plain aquifer in central Iran exemplifies this crisis. This study applied the MODFLOW model, calibrated and validated under both steady-state and transient conditions, to evaluate groundwater responses under alternative management strategies over a 5-year horizon (2019–2023). Three scenarios were tested: (i) baseline abstraction without external intervention, substitution of groundwater withdrawals with Persian Gulf water transfer to the Gol-Gohar mining complex, and deficit irrigation of pistachio orchards with 25% and 40% reductions in irrigation supply. Simulation results under the baseline scenario revealed continuous water table decline, with localized drawdowns exceeding 8 m. The Persian Gulf water transfer provided partial relief, raising groundwater levels in affected wells by less than 1 m. In contrast, deficit irrigation strategies produced larger improvements, with water level increases of up to 1.9 m, particularly when combined with water transfer. Nevertheless, despite these benefits, the aquifer remained under a general declining trend, underscoring the limits of isolated interventions. These findings demonstrate that while both water transfer and deficit irrigation can mitigate groundwater depletion, achieving long-term sustainability will require integrated water resources management, including crop pattern adjustment, managed aquifer recharge, and stricter abstraction control.