Impact of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes under CMIP6 scenarios

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发表日期：

2025年5月14日

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Leonardo Melo de Mendonça,
Claudio Blanco,
Josias da Silva Cruz

摘要

The objective of this work is to investigate the impact of Global Warming on the rainfall erosivity factor (R-Factor) in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, regions with high agricultural productivity in Brazil. Thus, the mean monthly rainfall projected under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5—intermediate and SSP5-8.5—most pessimistic) was used, based on the Multi-Model Ensemble comprising thirty-two Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The simulations are post-processed using the Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation statistical downscaling method, with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution. Linear Scaling was applied to correct systematic biases, based on the Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data Version 2.0 and the reference period from 1981 to 2010. The monthly R-Factor was estimated using seven previously calibrated statistical models. The estimated values showed Kling-Gupta Efficiency ranging from 0.687 to 0.866, which are considered satisfactory. The reference monthly R-Factors ranged from 0 to 4140 MJ mm h⁻¹ ha⁻¹ month⁻¹, while the reference annual R-Factor ranged from 5580 to 25,200 MJ mm h⁻¹ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, predominantly classified as very strong. Projected changes in the annual R-Factor until 2100 varied from − 2617 to 81 MJ mm h⁻¹ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the intermediate scenario, and from − 5564 to – 313 MJ mm h⁻¹ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the most pessimistic scenario. The Northern and Central regions of the Amazon exhibit the most intense rates of change in the annual R-Factor. However, the annual R-Factor class remains predominantly very strong under both analyzed scenarios.