<p>Observing discrete behaviors in a techno-human-economic (THE) system under stress is an effective way to assess its resilience and survivability. This article applies the resilience-survivability framework to mathematically analyze the contributions of each component of the resilience trifecta—technology, human factors, and the economy—regarding the current state of the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico (PR). Statistical analyses were conducted using simulation modeling to calculate the contribution percentages of each component over 62&#xa0;years (1960–2022), both individually and in combination. ANOVA was performed at a 1% significance level, revealing that the components contributed more significantly to the system’s overall well-being individually than through interactions. Interaction plots showed that the human component had the largest impact, contributing 34.94% to the overall system, followed by the economy (33.07%) and technology (31.99%). Additionally, it was observed that when a component is in a survivable state, the system experiences reduced stress, as measured by the overall time the system spends in a given state. Increasing the significance level to 10% would suggest that interactions between components play a greater role in the prompt restoration and decline of the system under assessment, but it would challenge the normality assumption of the observations. Implications for the interdependencies among the trifecta are made in light of the interaction effects. The results from the ANOVA were confirmed by the nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis test in terms of significance, positioning the economic component as the most influential factor from a per-group distributional standpoint.</p>

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Monitoring Resilient Techno-Human-Economic Systems Performance Through Simulation Modeling

  • Kenneth Martínez,
  • David Claudio,
  • Jasmina Burek

摘要

Observing discrete behaviors in a techno-human-economic (THE) system under stress is an effective way to assess its resilience and survivability. This article applies the resilience-survivability framework to mathematically analyze the contributions of each component of the resilience trifecta—technology, human factors, and the economy—regarding the current state of the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico (PR). Statistical analyses were conducted using simulation modeling to calculate the contribution percentages of each component over 62 years (1960–2022), both individually and in combination. ANOVA was performed at a 1% significance level, revealing that the components contributed more significantly to the system’s overall well-being individually than through interactions. Interaction plots showed that the human component had the largest impact, contributing 34.94% to the overall system, followed by the economy (33.07%) and technology (31.99%). Additionally, it was observed that when a component is in a survivable state, the system experiences reduced stress, as measured by the overall time the system spends in a given state. Increasing the significance level to 10% would suggest that interactions between components play a greater role in the prompt restoration and decline of the system under assessment, but it would challenge the normality assumption of the observations. Implications for the interdependencies among the trifecta are made in light of the interaction effects. The results from the ANOVA were confirmed by the nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis test in terms of significance, positioning the economic component as the most influential factor from a per-group distributional standpoint.