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<p>This study explores the relationship between tourist arrivals and the load capacity factor (LCF) across the ten most-visited countries from 1995 to 2022. Using the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) technique as the main method, which captures nonlinear and asymmetric relationships, the analysis reveals significant cross-country variation in how tourism affects environmental quality. The results indicate a heterogeneous impact of tourism on environmental sustainability across countries and quantiles. In China, Germany, the UK, and the USA, tourist arrivals positively affect LCF at lower quantiles but reduce it at higher levels of tourism. France, Mexico, and Thailand experience a mostly negative impact across quantiles. In contrast, Italy and Turkey shift from negative effects at lower quantiles to positive impacts at higher ones, while Spain displays a mix of outcomes. These findings highlight the need for differentiated, country-specific policies to promote sustainable tourism in line with national environmental capacities.</p>

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Unlocking Tourist Arrivals Dynamics: A Novel Quantile-on-Quantile Exploration of Load Capacity Factor

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月26日

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  • Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath,
  • Sheo Rama,
  • Jyoti Sharma,
  • Vivekanand Jaiswal

摘要

This study explores the relationship between tourist arrivals and the load capacity factor (LCF) across the ten most-visited countries from 1995 to 2022. Using the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) technique as the main method, which captures nonlinear and asymmetric relationships, the analysis reveals significant cross-country variation in how tourism affects environmental quality. The results indicate a heterogeneous impact of tourism on environmental sustainability across countries and quantiles. In China, Germany, the UK, and the USA, tourist arrivals positively affect LCF at lower quantiles but reduce it at higher levels of tourism. France, Mexico, and Thailand experience a mostly negative impact across quantiles. In contrast, Italy and Turkey shift from negative effects at lower quantiles to positive impacts at higher ones, while Spain displays a mix of outcomes. These findings highlight the need for differentiated, country-specific policies to promote sustainable tourism in line with national environmental capacities.