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<p>This paper deals with a simple probabilistic description of some issues related to searching for a missing person. The questions solved are only a small part of a complex area of the search and rescue problems, but they nevertheless concern at least two interesting points of the application of mathematics in managerial decision-making. First, we propose the use of Bayes’ rule to recalculate the probability of a lost person’s location based on additional information. Next, the optimal ordering of searched areas is determined that minimizes the average (expected) search time. Finally, the proposed solutions will be illustrated with several artificial examples.</p>

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A Probabilistic Formulation of Problem of Optimal Search for a Lost Person

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月17日

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  • Petr Volf

摘要

This paper deals with a simple probabilistic description of some issues related to searching for a missing person. The questions solved are only a small part of a complex area of the search and rescue problems, but they nevertheless concern at least two interesting points of the application of mathematics in managerial decision-making. First, we propose the use of Bayes’ rule to recalculate the probability of a lost person’s location based on additional information. Next, the optimal ordering of searched areas is determined that minimizes the average (expected) search time. Finally, the proposed solutions will be illustrated with several artificial examples.