Multimethod assessment of groundwater quality and associated health risks in the semi-arid middle Moulouya agricultural basin (Morocco)
摘要
Groundwater is a primary resource for drinking and irrigation in semi-arid regions, with direct implications for environmental sustainability and public health. This study assesses groundwater quality and associated human health risks in the Middle Moulouya Basin (Morocco), an agricultural area. A total of 24 groundwater samples were analyzed using multi-index, and multivariate statistical analyses, and human health risk assessment was conducted using deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) approaches, based on 10 physicochemical parameters and 8 trace metals. The results indicate that groundwater quality ranges from excellent to poor, and most samples are suitable for irrigation with some localized salinity concerns. Heavy metal contamination is generally low, although microbial contamination was detected in a fraction of samples. Health risk assessment indicates that non-carcinogenic risks are low for both adults and children Total Hazard Index (THI < 1), and carcinogenic risks fall within the ranges of 10–4 and 10–6. However, probabilistic cancer risk slightly exceeds the negligible threshold but remains within the acceptable range defined by USEPA guidelines. Sensitivity analysis identifies trace metal concentrations, particularly Cr and Ni, as the main contributors to carcinogenic risk. The results suggest the need for continuous monitoring and sustainable management to prevent increases in heavy-metal and microbial contamination in the study area.