<p>Natural hazards and environmental risks, including air pollution, pose significant threats to human health and urban sustainability, highlighting the need for spatially explicit analytical approaches to support effective monitoring and management. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution of PM<sub>10</sub> (particulate matter ≤ 10&#xa0;μm) concentrations in the Eastern Marmara Basin, Türkiye, using datasets from 2014, 2020, and 2024 within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based framework. Meteorological, land-use, and topographic variables were integrated into a spatial database to support analysis. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to examine spatially varying relationships between PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations and environmental factors. The results indicate that meteorological variables are the primary drivers of PM<sub>10</sub> variability, whereas land use and topography have moderate but locally significant effects. Local R<sup>2</sup> values reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity and highlight areas where pollutant levels are highly sensitive to environmental and anthropogenic influences. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of combining GIS and GWR to capture spatial non-stationarity in air pollution dynamics and to provide a reproducible framework for environmental risk assessment and spatially informed decision-making.</p>

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Spatiotemporal analysis of air pollution using GIS and geographically weighted regression: a case study in the eastern Marmara Basin, Turkey

  • Arzu Erener,
  • Arif Çağdaş Aydınoğlu,
  • Ali Doğan Gümüşsoy

摘要

Natural hazards and environmental risks, including air pollution, pose significant threats to human health and urban sustainability, highlighting the need for spatially explicit analytical approaches to support effective monitoring and management. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution of PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 μm) concentrations in the Eastern Marmara Basin, Türkiye, using datasets from 2014, 2020, and 2024 within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based framework. Meteorological, land-use, and topographic variables were integrated into a spatial database to support analysis. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to examine spatially varying relationships between PM10 concentrations and environmental factors. The results indicate that meteorological variables are the primary drivers of PM10 variability, whereas land use and topography have moderate but locally significant effects. Local R2 values reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity and highlight areas where pollutant levels are highly sensitive to environmental and anthropogenic influences. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of combining GIS and GWR to capture spatial non-stationarity in air pollution dynamics and to provide a reproducible framework for environmental risk assessment and spatially informed decision-making.