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<p>The coastal areas of the Rabat-Sale-Kenitra region in Morocco play a crucial role in sustainable development due to their high population density and economic contribution. However, high demographic and economic pressures, combined with climate and environmental factors, intensify the vulnerability of these coastal areas. Over time, these areas are heavily impacted by the consequences of climate change, resulting in damage and losses in low-lying coastal zones. Climate change risks, particularly coastal risks, are frequently addressed, and assessing them in this context is a research priority. This study assesses the risk of coastal flooding, accounting for the flood level associated with extreme wave conditions (100-year return period) and extreme sea-level rise. It employs the Coastal Risk Index at the Local Scale, incorporating 19 variables to calculate indices of forcing, vulnerability, exposure, and risk within a hazard zone defined by a maximum flood level of 11.62&#xa0;m. The results show that the coastal hazard zone in the RSK region is subject to moderate forcing for a significant portion of the area. As one moves away from the coastal zones, vulnerability decreases, and the highest exposure index is typically concentrated in the most densely populated urban areas. The detailed Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index map, generated spatially using a Geographic Information System, provides an essential decision-support tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and adaptation planning in the RSK region.</p>

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Coastal risk dynamics along the Rabat-Sale-Kenitra shoreline (Morocco)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Loubna Terhzaz,
  • Salma Regragui,
  • Khalid Oubarka,
  • Abdelkarim Louaya,
  • Afaf Amine,
  • Saida Niazi

摘要

The coastal areas of the Rabat-Sale-Kenitra region in Morocco play a crucial role in sustainable development due to their high population density and economic contribution. However, high demographic and economic pressures, combined with climate and environmental factors, intensify the vulnerability of these coastal areas. Over time, these areas are heavily impacted by the consequences of climate change, resulting in damage and losses in low-lying coastal zones. Climate change risks, particularly coastal risks, are frequently addressed, and assessing them in this context is a research priority. This study assesses the risk of coastal flooding, accounting for the flood level associated with extreme wave conditions (100-year return period) and extreme sea-level rise. It employs the Coastal Risk Index at the Local Scale, incorporating 19 variables to calculate indices of forcing, vulnerability, exposure, and risk within a hazard zone defined by a maximum flood level of 11.62 m. The results show that the coastal hazard zone in the RSK region is subject to moderate forcing for a significant portion of the area. As one moves away from the coastal zones, vulnerability decreases, and the highest exposure index is typically concentrated in the most densely populated urban areas. The detailed Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index map, generated spatially using a Geographic Information System, provides an essential decision-support tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and adaptation planning in the RSK region.