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<p>This study investigates the seasonal variability of meteorological drought and its large-scale atmospheric drivers in the Western Rif region of northern Morocco during 1980–2019. Drought conditions were quantified using the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) derived from monthly precipitation records at 17 meteorological stations for autumn (SON), winter (DJF), and spring (MAM). Four key teleconnection indices, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WeMOi), and subtropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, were examined using non-parametric (Spearman) correlations, 15-year moving-window diagnostics to capture non-stationarity, seasonally disaggregated multivariate regression, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to address multicollinearity. Results reveal a clear seasonal hierarchy of teleconnection influence: MOI shows the strongest and most persistent negative association with SPI-3, particularly in autumn (ρ ≈ − 0.80) and winter (ρ ≈ − 0.50), while NAO exerts a significant winter influence that weakens after the mid-2000s. In spring, teleconnection–drought relationships are generally weaker and more unstable, indicating diminished large-scale control during the late wet season. PCA enhanced model stability and explained up to 53% of SPI-3 variability in autumn, 39% in winter, and 19% in spring. Overall, the findings provide a robust diagnostic framework for understanding season-dependent teleconnection–drought dynamics in Mediterranean mountain environments and highlight the relevance of MOI and NAO as key indicators for seasonal drought monitoring and risk assessment.</p>

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Seasonal and non-stationary climate controls on meteorological drought in a Mediterranean mountain region: the Western Rif (Morocco), 1980–2019

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月24日

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  • Ayoub Al Mashoudi,
  • Mansour Almazroui,
  • Mohammed Chrif el Idrissi,
  • Mouloud Ziani,
  • Adil Akallouch,
  • Mohamed Machebbouh,
  • Mohamed Belmahi

摘要

This study investigates the seasonal variability of meteorological drought and its large-scale atmospheric drivers in the Western Rif region of northern Morocco during 1980–2019. Drought conditions were quantified using the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) derived from monthly precipitation records at 17 meteorological stations for autumn (SON), winter (DJF), and spring (MAM). Four key teleconnection indices, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WeMOi), and subtropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, were examined using non-parametric (Spearman) correlations, 15-year moving-window diagnostics to capture non-stationarity, seasonally disaggregated multivariate regression, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to address multicollinearity. Results reveal a clear seasonal hierarchy of teleconnection influence: MOI shows the strongest and most persistent negative association with SPI-3, particularly in autumn (ρ ≈ − 0.80) and winter (ρ ≈ − 0.50), while NAO exerts a significant winter influence that weakens after the mid-2000s. In spring, teleconnection–drought relationships are generally weaker and more unstable, indicating diminished large-scale control during the late wet season. PCA enhanced model stability and explained up to 53% of SPI-3 variability in autumn, 39% in winter, and 19% in spring. Overall, the findings provide a robust diagnostic framework for understanding season-dependent teleconnection–drought dynamics in Mediterranean mountain environments and highlight the relevance of MOI and NAO as key indicators for seasonal drought monitoring and risk assessment.