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<p>Depletion of groundwater (GW) means a scarcity of water which means that there is a lack of water. Water scarcity is a shortage of clean water sources to meet the water demand. Many regions of India are facing a decrease in levels of groundwater which just so happens to be one of the most important water sources in India. The region of Nashik in Maharashtra, India, has long been renowned for its agricultural prowess, particularly in the cultivation of grapes, onions, and vegetables. However, in recent years, the rapid depletion of groundwater resources has emerged as a significant challenge, threatening the sustainability of agricultural productivity in the region. Our motive is to analyze Nashik for groundwater recharge as it is one of the cities reaching Day 0 condition cities since 5 medium-sized dams out of the total 24 medium and large dams in Nashik district have gone dry. So, the aim is to determine the recharge rate of ground water using data on annual rain fall and annual groundwater at Nashik, since groundwater recharge is dependent on the mean annual GW and mean annual sum of precipitation. By using the available datasets, a prediction can be made to determine at what rate the groundwater of Nashik is being recharged. For this, time series analysis and forecasting have been applied to rainfall and groundwater datasets using SARIMA models. The metric used for the optimal choice of parameters for SARIMA is AIC. A minimum value of the Akaike Information Criterion shows the most optimal parameters for a particular model. The best models have been selected from the available models of SARIMA through the analysis of AIC. Perfomance has been analyzed through R2 square score and mean absolute error also.</p>

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The Impacts of Groundwater Recharge Rate Reduction on Agricultural Productivity in Nashik

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月1日

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  • Jyoti Gautam,
  • Megha Jain,
  • Shobha Bhatt

摘要

Depletion of groundwater (GW) means a scarcity of water which means that there is a lack of water. Water scarcity is a shortage of clean water sources to meet the water demand. Many regions of India are facing a decrease in levels of groundwater which just so happens to be one of the most important water sources in India. The region of Nashik in Maharashtra, India, has long been renowned for its agricultural prowess, particularly in the cultivation of grapes, onions, and vegetables. However, in recent years, the rapid depletion of groundwater resources has emerged as a significant challenge, threatening the sustainability of agricultural productivity in the region. Our motive is to analyze Nashik for groundwater recharge as it is one of the cities reaching Day 0 condition cities since 5 medium-sized dams out of the total 24 medium and large dams in Nashik district have gone dry. So, the aim is to determine the recharge rate of ground water using data on annual rain fall and annual groundwater at Nashik, since groundwater recharge is dependent on the mean annual GW and mean annual sum of precipitation. By using the available datasets, a prediction can be made to determine at what rate the groundwater of Nashik is being recharged. For this, time series analysis and forecasting have been applied to rainfall and groundwater datasets using SARIMA models. The metric used for the optimal choice of parameters for SARIMA is AIC. A minimum value of the Akaike Information Criterion shows the most optimal parameters for a particular model. The best models have been selected from the available models of SARIMA through the analysis of AIC. Perfomance has been analyzed through R2 square score and mean absolute error also.