Mathematical Model and AI Integration for COVID-19: Improving Forecasting and Policy-Making

In this work, a new susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) compartmental model is proposed which has additional media influence for precise quantization of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In the proposed model, first-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used for the formulation of basic reproduction number, whereas genetic algorithm (GA) is used for its estimation. The inclusion of climatic parameters, governmental impact, and human behavioral response toward the disease provides an upper hand in determining the dynamics of its transmissibility, thereby indicating their significance in precising the outcomes. In addition, the future trends for the new normalized confirmed cases of COVID-19 are predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model which helps in evaluating and modifying the current preventive actions taken to improve the situation. The robustness of the proposed model is measured by five different error functions which are tested in five different countries. According to the experimental results, this is observed that the proposed model has a smaller prediction deviation as well and the proposed scheme outperforms state-of-the-art models of COVID-19.