<p>In recent years, simulation-based inferences have garnered significant attention due to the inherent challenges in directly computing likelihood functions for many real-world problems. Iterated filtering (Ionides et al., <CitationRef CitationID="CR19">2006</CitationRef>, <CitationRef CitationID="CR21">2011b</CitationRef>) has emerged as a method to maximize likelihood functions by perturbing models and approximating the gradient of log-likelihood through sequential Monte Carlo filtering. Using Stein’s identity, Doucet et al. (<CitationRef CitationID="CR13">2013</CitationRef>) devised a second-order approximation of the gradient of log-likelihood using sequential Monte Carlo smoothing. In this paper, we first generalize Stein’s identity for normal distribution to <i>p</i>-generalized Gaussian distribution, enabling more flexible perturbation with different tail behaviors. Building upon these gradient approximations, we introduce a novel weighted average algorithm for maximizing likelihood through the two-time-scale stochastic approximation. We integrate the algorithm into the iterated filtering framework, relaxing the requirement for an unbiased and bounded variance of the two-time-scale stochastic approximation. We demonstrate the potential of this algorithm in fitting both linear and non-linear complex scientific problems.</p>

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Weighted average iterated filtering using p-generalized Gaussian smoothing

  • Zamzam Qazi,
  • Anh D. Doan,
  • Xin Dang,
  • Dao Nguyen

摘要

In recent years, simulation-based inferences have garnered significant attention due to the inherent challenges in directly computing likelihood functions for many real-world problems. Iterated filtering (Ionides et al., 2006, 2011b) has emerged as a method to maximize likelihood functions by perturbing models and approximating the gradient of log-likelihood through sequential Monte Carlo filtering. Using Stein’s identity, Doucet et al. (2013) devised a second-order approximation of the gradient of log-likelihood using sequential Monte Carlo smoothing. In this paper, we first generalize Stein’s identity for normal distribution to p-generalized Gaussian distribution, enabling more flexible perturbation with different tail behaviors. Building upon these gradient approximations, we introduce a novel weighted average algorithm for maximizing likelihood through the two-time-scale stochastic approximation. We integrate the algorithm into the iterated filtering framework, relaxing the requirement for an unbiased and bounded variance of the two-time-scale stochastic approximation. We demonstrate the potential of this algorithm in fitting both linear and non-linear complex scientific problems.