Rising frequency and intensification of tropical nights: historical changes and future projections for the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman regions
摘要
Global warming has notably affected nighttime temperature patterns, increasing the frequency of tropical nights. The aim of this study is to examine historical and future changes in tropical night frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. ERA5-Land reanalysis data was used to evaluate baseline trends, and validate general circulation models (GCMs). Furthermore, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of 30 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) was used to project future frequency and intensity of tropical nights under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, extending to the end of the 21st century. The findings indicate a historical upward trend in both the frequency and intensity of tropical nights, which is projected to accelerate to the end of the century. The historical trend was estimated at 0.43 nights per year, while future projections suggest an annual increase of 0.24 to 1.23 nights, depending on the scenario. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of tropical nights may more than double by the end of the century, whereas the moderate-emission SSP2-4.5 scenario also exhibits an increasing trend, albeit at a lower rate. Spatially, the most pronounced intensification is expected along the coastal zones, where, in some areas, the annual number of tropical nights exceed 300 days by 2100. Overall, the study highlights the increasing severity and frequency of tropical nights under future climate scenarios, especially those with higher greenhouse gas emissions. These results underscore the urgent need for policymakers and urban planners in sectors such as energy, public health, and climate adaptation to implement effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of intensified nocturnal warming.
Graphical abstract