Scholarlink

<p>This paper presents a new probabilistic adequacy evaluation methodology for composite power systems that integrate wind turbine generators (WTGs) into a conventional Hierarchical Level II (HLII) framework consisting of generators and transmission lines. To explicitly quantify the adequacy impact introduced by variable renewable energy sources (RESs), a new index termed Renewable Adequacy Impact (RAI) is proposed. The proposed method adopts a fully probabilistic modeling approach: conventional units and transmission lines are represented using two-state forced outage rates (FORs), while WTGs are modeled using multi-state representations derived from wind-speed probability distributions and corresponding power-output characteristics. An effective load model for HLII systems is developed to simultaneously incorporate generation outages and transmission constraints. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-bus sample system, showing how WTG uncertainty propagates through composite-system contingencies and affects adequacy indices such as LOLE, EENS, and EIR. The results indicate that the proposed HLII + WTG model enhances both the accuracy and interpretability of reliability assessment under high renewable penetration. Furthermore, the newly introduced RAI index provides a meaningful quantitative measure of renewable-driven adequacy impacts, offering practical insights for future Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) and Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) in increasingly uncertain power systems.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation Under High Renewable Penetration: Evolution from Generation Planning to Transmission Planning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月27日

查看全文
  • Changhee Han,
  • Junzo Watada,
  • Kwang Y. Lee,
  • Eunseong Park,
  • Jaeseok Choi

摘要

This paper presents a new probabilistic adequacy evaluation methodology for composite power systems that integrate wind turbine generators (WTGs) into a conventional Hierarchical Level II (HLII) framework consisting of generators and transmission lines. To explicitly quantify the adequacy impact introduced by variable renewable energy sources (RESs), a new index termed Renewable Adequacy Impact (RAI) is proposed. The proposed method adopts a fully probabilistic modeling approach: conventional units and transmission lines are represented using two-state forced outage rates (FORs), while WTGs are modeled using multi-state representations derived from wind-speed probability distributions and corresponding power-output characteristics. An effective load model for HLII systems is developed to simultaneously incorporate generation outages and transmission constraints. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-bus sample system, showing how WTG uncertainty propagates through composite-system contingencies and affects adequacy indices such as LOLE, EENS, and EIR. The results indicate that the proposed HLII + WTG model enhances both the accuracy and interpretability of reliability assessment under high renewable penetration. Furthermore, the newly introduced RAI index provides a meaningful quantitative measure of renewable-driven adequacy impacts, offering practical insights for future Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) and Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) in increasingly uncertain power systems.