Modelling the Distribution Pattern of Soil Organic Carbon During a Transition from Mangroves to Shrimp Farms

This study examined how the conversion of mangrove forests, specifically those dominated by Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh. trees, to shrimp farms impacts the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC). The aim of this study was to develop models that could predict the distribution of cumulative SOC stock (SOC_c) and volumetric SOC density (SOC_v) throughout the soil profiles in shrimp farming areas and mangrove ecosystems. We investigated the distribution of SOC at different depths using three mathematical models (allometric, exponential, and sigmoid). These models were applied to data collected from 36 soil cores. Each core contained ten 10-centimeter soil layers, ranging from 0 to 100 centimeters deep. In total, we analyzed 360 soil samples, one from each layer. The allometric formula proved most effective in predicting SOC_v distribution, with average R² values of 0.897618 and 0.992396 for mangroves and shrimp farms, in that order. For mangroves, all three formulas effectively predicted the SOC_c, with exponential formula (R² = 0.999514) exhibiting the best performance. For shrimp farms, all formulas were applicable, with the sigmoid formula demonstrating superior accuracy (R² = 0.999905). This study’s findings will significantly enhance our comprehension of SOC distribution in mangrove ecosystems under land-use change, allowing us to quantifying the impact of mangrove conversion on SOC dynamics in coastal ecosystems.