Improving Phosphorus Recommendation Models with Random Forest Regressor. Case of Corn (Zea mays L.)
摘要
The long-criticized conventional approach, soil test-based unifactorial phosphorus fertilizer recommendation models, faces difficulty finding an efficient and cost-effective fertilization rate. This study aimed to develop optimal phosphorus fertilizer rates for corn using Random Forest Regressor (RF). We built big data comprising 2800 observations with 875 experiments extracted from 85 scientific articles globally, which assessed corn response to phosphorus fertilization. Optimum P-fertilizer rates were derived using the conventional approach: calibration and recommendation. Fertilizer application rate, soil pH, organic matter, texture, fertility class, precipitation, and fertilizer application method were used as input variables to predict ∆Y (Yfertilized plot - Yunfertilized plot) with Random Forest. Response curves obtained from Random Forest predictions were reconstructed with the current unit market prices of corn and phosphate fertilizer to develop the optimal rates. Soil test-based approach showed high uncertainty in estimating the optimum P rate with low R2 of 13.1%, 4.3%, and 8.6%, respectively, for POlsen, PBray−1, and PMehlich−3. Prediction of ∆Y with Random Forest gave R2 of 84% and 71% for the training and testing dataset, respectively. An example of POlsen, PBray−1, and PMehlich−3 diagnostic systems showed optimal P rates of 21, 24, and 44 kg P ha− 1, respectively, and the multifactorial model predicted nearly identical rates of 22, 25, and 43 kg P ha− 1. In contrast, the unifactorial model recommended very different rates of 13, 40, and 17 kg P ha− 1. The Random Forest model recommended significantly more reliable optimal phosphorus rates for corn than the conventional model based on a simple soil test P.