Scholarlink

<p>Climate change is altering insect pest biogeography, with consequences for crop production in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the current and future (2050) habitat suitability of two major stemborers, <i>Busseola fusca</i> and <i>Chilo partellus,</i> in Kenya. We used 243 occurrence records for <i>B. fusca</i> and 194 for <i>C. partellus</i> and developed ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) using climate projections from three high-performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) for Eastern Africa under business-as-usual and pessimistic climate scenarios. The trained model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS), overall accuracy, and F1 score based on an independent validation dataset. Future prediction confidence was further assessed through sensitivity, robustness, and pairwise agreement analyses. The models showed strong predictive performance (<i>B. fusca</i>: AUC = 0.94, TSS = 0.84; <i>C. partellus</i>: AUC = 0.91, TSS = 0.73), with independent validation confirming high predictive accuracy (<i>B. fusca</i>: F1 = 0.84; <i>C. partellus</i>: F1 = 0.94). Inter-model agreement exceeded 84.9%, indicating high spatial consistency among GCMs. Future projections indicate habitat contraction for <i>B. fusca</i> within the central Kenyan highlands, whereas <i>C. partellus</i> is projected to expand into previously unsuitable areas. Furthermore, spatial overlap analysis revealed an increase in shared suitable habitat, with overlaps rising from 28.6% under current climate conditions to over 51.0% under future climate scenarios, indicating increasing potential for co-occurrence between the two stemborer species. These findings highlight potential implications for climate-resilient stemborer monitoring and management strategies under future climate uncertainty.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Forecasting climate-driven biogeographic shifts of Busseola fusca (Fuller, 1901) and Chilo partellus (Swinhoe, 1885) in Kenya using ensemble ecological modelling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月4日

查看全文
  • Quinto Juma Meltus,
  • Komi Mensah Agboka,
  • John Odindi,
  • Paul-André Calatayud,
  • Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman,
  • Bonoukpoè Mawuko Sokame

摘要

Climate change is altering insect pest biogeography, with consequences for crop production in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed the current and future (2050) habitat suitability of two major stemborers, Busseola fusca and Chilo partellus, in Kenya. We used 243 occurrence records for B. fusca and 194 for C. partellus and developed ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) using climate projections from three high-performing General Circulation Models (GCMs) for Eastern Africa under business-as-usual and pessimistic climate scenarios. The trained model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS), overall accuracy, and F1 score based on an independent validation dataset. Future prediction confidence was further assessed through sensitivity, robustness, and pairwise agreement analyses. The models showed strong predictive performance (B. fusca: AUC = 0.94, TSS = 0.84; C. partellus: AUC = 0.91, TSS = 0.73), with independent validation confirming high predictive accuracy (B. fusca: F1 = 0.84; C. partellus: F1 = 0.94). Inter-model agreement exceeded 84.9%, indicating high spatial consistency among GCMs. Future projections indicate habitat contraction for B. fusca within the central Kenyan highlands, whereas C. partellus is projected to expand into previously unsuitable areas. Furthermore, spatial overlap analysis revealed an increase in shared suitable habitat, with overlaps rising from 28.6% under current climate conditions to over 51.0% under future climate scenarios, indicating increasing potential for co-occurrence between the two stemborer species. These findings highlight potential implications for climate-resilient stemborer monitoring and management strategies under future climate uncertainty.