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<p>Insects serve as vital contributors to ecosystem services, underpinning critical processes such as pollination, nutrient cycling, and biological pest control. Within this framework, social wasps of the family Vespidae stand out for their sophisticated behavioral complexity and multifaceted ecological roles. These include regulating arthropod populations through predation, providing incidental pollination services, and potentially acting as bioindicators for assessing climate change impacts. Their sensitivity to environmental shifts positions them as valuable subjects for monitoring ecological health in the context of global climate dynamics. This study evaluates current and future habitat suitability for <i>Parapolybia escalerae</i> in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region using the MaxEnt model. High predictive accuracy (AUC and TSS validated) identified annual mean temperature (bio1; 44.7% contribution) as the primary habitat driver, followed by population density (16.5%) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14; 8.7%). Terrain and seasonal climatic variables (e.g., elevation, precipitation seasonality) further refined predictions, while soil pH and NDVI showed minimal influence. Currently, 12.95% (6,600.4&#xa0;km²) of the region provides suitable habitat, predominantly low suitability (7.95%). By 2070, both SSP126 (low-emission) and SSP585 (high-emission) scenarios project habitat expansion to ~ 20%, though spatial turnover differs. Under SSP126, gains (4,466.61&#xa0;km²; 8.76%) outweigh losses (591.28&#xa0;km²; 1.16%), while SSP585 shows marginally smaller gains (4,361.57&#xa0;km²; 8.56%) but greater losses (646.93&#xa0;km²; 1.27%). Habitat gains concentrate in mid-elevation zones, whereas losses dominate lowland valleys under anthropogenic stress. A marked upward altitudinal shift toward humid, higher-elevation microhabitats aligns with climate-driven patterns observed in global insect populations. These results underscore temperature and human activity as critical drivers of habitat reorganization, necessitating conservation strategies that prioritize mid-elevation refugia and mitigate lowland degradation. The study demonstrates MaxEnt’s utility in guiding biodiversity planning in data-scarce regions, emphasizing integrated approaches to address climate and anthropogenic threats. In addition, the findings necessitate conservation strategies that prioritize mid-elevation refugia due to a marked upward altitudinal shift.</p>

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Impact of climate change on the ecologically distinct paper wasp Parapolybia escalerae in a semi-arid region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月25日

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  • Nabaz R. Khwarahm,
  • Diyari A. Ali

摘要

Insects serve as vital contributors to ecosystem services, underpinning critical processes such as pollination, nutrient cycling, and biological pest control. Within this framework, social wasps of the family Vespidae stand out for their sophisticated behavioral complexity and multifaceted ecological roles. These include regulating arthropod populations through predation, providing incidental pollination services, and potentially acting as bioindicators for assessing climate change impacts. Their sensitivity to environmental shifts positions them as valuable subjects for monitoring ecological health in the context of global climate dynamics. This study evaluates current and future habitat suitability for Parapolybia escalerae in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region using the MaxEnt model. High predictive accuracy (AUC and TSS validated) identified annual mean temperature (bio1; 44.7% contribution) as the primary habitat driver, followed by population density (16.5%) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14; 8.7%). Terrain and seasonal climatic variables (e.g., elevation, precipitation seasonality) further refined predictions, while soil pH and NDVI showed minimal influence. Currently, 12.95% (6,600.4 km²) of the region provides suitable habitat, predominantly low suitability (7.95%). By 2070, both SSP126 (low-emission) and SSP585 (high-emission) scenarios project habitat expansion to ~ 20%, though spatial turnover differs. Under SSP126, gains (4,466.61 km²; 8.76%) outweigh losses (591.28 km²; 1.16%), while SSP585 shows marginally smaller gains (4,361.57 km²; 8.56%) but greater losses (646.93 km²; 1.27%). Habitat gains concentrate in mid-elevation zones, whereas losses dominate lowland valleys under anthropogenic stress. A marked upward altitudinal shift toward humid, higher-elevation microhabitats aligns with climate-driven patterns observed in global insect populations. These results underscore temperature and human activity as critical drivers of habitat reorganization, necessitating conservation strategies that prioritize mid-elevation refugia and mitigate lowland degradation. The study demonstrates MaxEnt’s utility in guiding biodiversity planning in data-scarce regions, emphasizing integrated approaches to address climate and anthropogenic threats. In addition, the findings necessitate conservation strategies that prioritize mid-elevation refugia due to a marked upward altitudinal shift.