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<p>The stingless bee, <i>Hypotrigona gribodoi</i>, is native to certain countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and is utilized for plant pollination and the collection of bee products such as honey and resin. In this study, we evaluated the potential of this bee species to expand into new regions in Africa in response to climate change using ecological modeling approaches. We analyzed specific environmental variables: annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation seasonality. The study employed the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) and a geographic information system (GIS) with a high-performing model (area under curve = 0.93 and true skill statistics = 0.7). Our analysis encompassed future climate conditions for 2050 and 2070, utilizing four general circulation models: the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-CGCM3), the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM 1_1), the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) or (NO.), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (CCSM4). The predicted current climate map closely corresponds with observed data on this species, except for the north-western regions of Africa. While significant changes in the habitat of <i>H. gribodoi</i> are not expected due to future climate conditions, one scenario for 2070 suggested a potential loss of much of its suitable habitat across the continent. The two-dimensional niche analysis showed that temperatures ranging from 27 to 37&#xa0;°C during the summer season and annual precipitation levels between 100 and 1700&#xa0;mm represent the most suitable conditions within which this species can thrive. We discussed the potential impacts of climate change on <i>H. gribodoi</i> based on the utilized model, as well as the likelihood of its introduction into new regions within Africa.</p>

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Modeling the potential range expansion of Hypotrigona gribodoi (stingless bees) in Africa: assessing climate change impacts and habitat suitability using Maxent and GIS

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月7日

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  • Mohamed Nasser,
  • Hossam Abou-Shaara,
  • Areej A. AlKhalaf,
  • Sara AlAshaal,
  • Eslam Hosni

摘要

The stingless bee, Hypotrigona gribodoi, is native to certain countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and is utilized for plant pollination and the collection of bee products such as honey and resin. In this study, we evaluated the potential of this bee species to expand into new regions in Africa in response to climate change using ecological modeling approaches. We analyzed specific environmental variables: annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation seasonality. The study employed the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) and a geographic information system (GIS) with a high-performing model (area under curve = 0.93 and true skill statistics = 0.7). Our analysis encompassed future climate conditions for 2050 and 2070, utilizing four general circulation models: the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-CGCM3), the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM 1_1), the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) or (NO.), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (CCSM4). The predicted current climate map closely corresponds with observed data on this species, except for the north-western regions of Africa. While significant changes in the habitat of H. gribodoi are not expected due to future climate conditions, one scenario for 2070 suggested a potential loss of much of its suitable habitat across the continent. The two-dimensional niche analysis showed that temperatures ranging from 27 to 37 °C during the summer season and annual precipitation levels between 100 and 1700 mm represent the most suitable conditions within which this species can thrive. We discussed the potential impacts of climate change on H. gribodoi based on the utilized model, as well as the likelihood of its introduction into new regions within Africa.