<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has affected mortality through multiple mechanisms, including direct, indirect, and combined direct-indirect effects, as well as competing risks. This study aimed to examine these effects on mortality in the municipality of Campinas, Brazil. The first hypothesis is that mortality from the main causes of death among older adults increased due to difficulties in accessing health care during the pandemic. The second hypothesis is that excess deaths in Campinas can be attributed to the direct-indirect and indirect effects of COVID-19. The analysis was conducted in two stages: the first, an ecological study covering the period from 2010 to 2022; the second, a time-series analysis from 2010 to 2023. Mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health of Brazil, and population estimates from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (<CitationRef CitationID="CR24">2010</CitationRef>, <CitationRef CitationID="CR25">2022</CitationRef>). The results indicate an excess in mortality among adults and older adults for selected ICD-10 chapters, as well as evidence of excess deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. These findings underscore the importance of considering broader dimensions of the pandemic’s impact on mortality, beyond officially recorded COVID-19 deaths.</p>

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COVID-19, Excess Deaths, and Mortality: Evidence from a Municipality in Brazil

  • João Victor Antunes Lopes,
  • Luciana Correia Alves,
  • Rafael Rodrigues de Moares

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected mortality through multiple mechanisms, including direct, indirect, and combined direct-indirect effects, as well as competing risks. This study aimed to examine these effects on mortality in the municipality of Campinas, Brazil. The first hypothesis is that mortality from the main causes of death among older adults increased due to difficulties in accessing health care during the pandemic. The second hypothesis is that excess deaths in Campinas can be attributed to the direct-indirect and indirect effects of COVID-19. The analysis was conducted in two stages: the first, an ecological study covering the period from 2010 to 2022; the second, a time-series analysis from 2010 to 2023. Mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health of Brazil, and population estimates from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2010, 2022). The results indicate an excess in mortality among adults and older adults for selected ICD-10 chapters, as well as evidence of excess deaths not directly attributed to COVID-19. These findings underscore the importance of considering broader dimensions of the pandemic’s impact on mortality, beyond officially recorded COVID-19 deaths.