Fertility Decline in Canada Since the Great Recession

Fertility in Canada has declined since the Great Recession of 2007–09, from 1.69 in 2008 to 1.33 in 2022. This paper examines the factors behind this recent fertility decline. First, we analyze a range of fertility indicators to identify potential distortions in different measures. Second, we examine to what extent the recent fertility decline in Canada is due to fertility postponement (tempo) or fewer children per woman (quantum), using data from the Human Fertility Database and Statistics Canada. Our findings show that decreasing fertility quantum accounts for 61% of the fertility decline since the Great Recession, while the tempo effect plays a smaller role, contributing 39%. Last, we investigate which age and parity groups contribute most to the decline. The results indicate that the first birth decline, concentrated among women 18–28, makes the largest contribution to the drop in fertility. There are some signs of future fertility recuperation at older ages, yet the magnitude is small and contingent on the recovery of first births. The results are consistent with trends in the United States, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, where the first birth decline is the primary driver of the TFR decline and the recuperation of fertility rates at older ages is low.