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<p>Climate change is significantly impacting the distribution of species. This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current and future habitat suitability of <i>Ardisia blatteri</i> Gamble, an endangered and narrowly endemic plant species in Western Ghats. We used five bioclimatic variables, and three non-bioclimatic variables (aspect, elevation, slope), and species occurrence points to predict suitable habitats. The study used Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, relying on data from the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model. The MaxEnt model yielded an AUC value of 0.97, indicating an exceptional model accuracy. Key factors influencing <i>A. blatteri</i> habitat included precipitation of the driest month (Bio-14; 70.3%), elevation (14.2%), mean diurnal range (Bio-2; 11.8%), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio-18; 1.8%) were major contributors. The study predicts a decline in <i>A. blatteri</i> habitat suitability under future climate change scenarios, providing valuable guidance for conservation efforts. Model predictions indicate a decline in moderate potential areas by 27%, 21%, 30%, and 90% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s. Very high potential areas are projected to decline by 83%, 72%, 74%, and 93%, with the most severe reduction (93%) under SSP5-8.5 by the 2070s. Any change in rainfall patterns and temperature is expected to have detrimental effects on the future distribution of this species, and changes in mean diurnal range also impact on species survival in future. Our findings suggest that suitable habitat for <i>A. blatteri</i> would decrease under different climate change scenarios.</p>

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Habitat suitability modeling for conservation of Ardisia blatteri: a narrow endemic and endangered species of the Western Ghats, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月24日

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  • Pochamoni Bharath Simha Yadav,
  • S. Karuppusamy

摘要

Climate change is significantly impacting the distribution of species. This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current and future habitat suitability of Ardisia blatteri Gamble, an endangered and narrowly endemic plant species in Western Ghats. We used five bioclimatic variables, and three non-bioclimatic variables (aspect, elevation, slope), and species occurrence points to predict suitable habitats. The study used Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, relying on data from the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model. The MaxEnt model yielded an AUC value of 0.97, indicating an exceptional model accuracy. Key factors influencing A. blatteri habitat included precipitation of the driest month (Bio-14; 70.3%), elevation (14.2%), mean diurnal range (Bio-2; 11.8%), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio-18; 1.8%) were major contributors. The study predicts a decline in A. blatteri habitat suitability under future climate change scenarios, providing valuable guidance for conservation efforts. Model predictions indicate a decline in moderate potential areas by 27%, 21%, 30%, and 90% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s. Very high potential areas are projected to decline by 83%, 72%, 74%, and 93%, with the most severe reduction (93%) under SSP5-8.5 by the 2070s. Any change in rainfall patterns and temperature is expected to have detrimental effects on the future distribution of this species, and changes in mean diurnal range also impact on species survival in future. Our findings suggest that suitable habitat for A. blatteri would decrease under different climate change scenarios.